Netanyahu Considers Military Action, Unfazed by Election Delays

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made a significant security decision in the past 48 hours, with reports suggesting he is not deterred by the possibility of delaying elections due to a potential military escalation. Ben Caspit reported for Al-Monitor that Israel is not ruling out further confrontation with Iran or the Houthis before elections, amid growing concerns about Tehran's missile capabilities and a potential escalation in Yemen. A senior Israeli political source, speaking anonymously to Al-Monitor, indicated that despite an improvement in Netanyahu's poll numbers, the Prime Minister still fears losing power. This source suggested that a security flare-up that could lead to election postponement "does not deter him" and might even serve him politically.

The window for a potential military operation is narrowing as elections approach. On October 8, Channel 12 reported, citing U.S. officials, that the Pentagon had ordered U.S. Central Command to prepare for a possible renewed large-scale campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, the Houthis have intensified attacks against Saudi Arabia, with recent strikes killing civilians and hitting airports. However, Saudi Arabia has reportedly postponed an Israeli attempt to directly join military operations against the Houthis. An Israeli security official told Al-Monitor that while Israel possesses significant intelligence and precision strike advantages, Riyadh fears open cooperation with Israel could provoke a negative public reaction. "The Saudis are actually cooling Netanyahu's enthusiasm," a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor, adding that Riyadh currently shows limited interest in the matter.

Western sources reported that Iran has managed to preserve its missile and drone factories, potentially resuming its arms stockpile. The damage to Iranian military infrastructure during the war was reportedly less than initially estimated. A senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor that this is one reason why Trump considered renewing strikes against Iran, though messages from Washington are contradictory. Despite this uncertainty, the IDF maintains a high state of alert. An Israeli intelligence official expressed concern about the rapid rehabilitation of Iran's ballistic missile program, noting that Tehran is now dispersing production across more sites, some underground, making them harder to target than before the war. The assessment is that Iran's current missile and drone capabilities are nearing pre-war levels, a fact that cannot be ignored. The official added that these military capabilities will remain in Iran even after the elections.