Israel Prepares for Palestinian Security Forces Turning Against IDF

Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the IDF to prepare for a scenario where Palestinian Authority security forces and the Fatah-affiliated Tanzim organization turn their weapons against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers in the West Bank. Katz informed ministers of this directive during a recent weekly cabinet meeting, stating that such a move would trigger a large-scale Israeli offensive. He indicated that if necessary, Israel would launch a "comprehensive campaign against the PA, just as we did in Gaza and Lebanon," describing it as a "short and powerful" operation based on previous campaigns.

A former senior Shin Bet official, Sharif Hassan, who served from 1988 to 2013, commented that Katz's directive should have been issued much earlier, as the threat has been building for at least three years. Hassan pointed to the significant growth and armament of Palestinian security forces, estimating their numbers at 60,000 to 70,000 in the West Bank, which he considers a direct violation of the Oslo Accords, limiting police to around 20,000 with specific weaponry. While not believing the PA is planning an immediate attack, Hassan suspects a secret contingency plan exists within the leadership for a significant event that could ignite the situation, drawing parallels to the lead-up to Hamas's October 7th attack.

Hassan urged Israel to issue an ultimatum demanding the PA disarm and adhere to Oslo Accords limits, with legal and operational sanctions for violations. He also strongly opposed security coordination with the PA, stating, "All organizations are terrorist organizations; Fatah is no better than Hamas." He compared security coordination with the PA to coordinating with Iran.

Amit Yagur, a former deputy head of the Palestinian arena in the IDF Planning Directorate, cited President Mahmoud Abbas's repeated postponement of elections and the PA's declining public image as key factors. He noted that Hamas is growing stronger and leads in all recent polls, while the PA is perceived as deeply corrupt and stagnant. Yagur believes Palestinians no longer accept the PA's narrative despite significant foreign funding, as they don't see the benefits on the ground. He does not foresee a mass, organized Palestinian uprising due to fear of the consequences, as seen in Gaza, but warns that PA security personnel might turn to terrorism if their salaries cease.

Yagur suggested that a coordinated mass defection of security forces would be institutional suicide and the official end of the Oslo process. He also mentioned that the PA, unlike Hezbollah, lacks a strong ideological opposition to Israel and relies heavily on international funding. Yagur proposed an alternative long-term framework based on Gulf-style local governance rather than a two-state solution, criticizing the Sykes-Picot Agreement for creating failed states.