Poll Shows Winter's Party Below Threshold, Neither Bloc Near Majority
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
A new poll indicates Ofer Winter's party is below the electoral threshold with 2.8% support, leaving the current coalition bloc with 49 seats. Opposition parties hold 54 seats, and no bloc is near the 61 needed for a majority. Other parties, including Blue and White, also failed to cross the threshold. Voter certainty varies significantly by party, with the Joint List and Likud showing the highest confidence.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Ofer Winter's party is below the electoral threshold with 2.8% support in a new poll.
- The current coalition bloc has 49 seats, while opposition parties hold 54 seats.
- Neither the coalition nor opposition blocs are close to the 61 seats needed for a majority.
- Blue and White, "The Haredi Public," and Noam L'Yisrael also failed to cross the threshold.
- Voters for the Joint List and Likud expressed the highest certainty in their choices.
- Voters for "Bechirot" and the Handel-Zalicha party showed the lowest certainty.
A new poll released by Walla shows that Ofer Winter's party is failing to cross the electoral threshold, receiving only 2.8% of the vote and thus not translating into Knesset seats. This leaves the current coalition bloc with only 49 seats, while opposition parties collectively hold 54. The "Handel-Zalicha" party, projected to win four seats, is not aligned with either bloc, nor are the Arab parties which together hold 13 seats. Consequently, neither bloc is close to the 61 seats needed for a majority, indicating that any government formation would require additional partners or a shift in the coalition's composition.
Beyond Winter's party, other factions also fall short of the electoral threshold, including Blue and White (1.1%), "The Haredi Public" (1%), and Noam L'Yisrael (0.2%). The poll also examined voter certainty, finding that 45% of those supporting parties above the threshold are completely sure of their vote, with 49% "fairly sure." Coalition voters expressed higher certainty, with 54% completely sure, compared to 35% of opposition voters. The pollsters noted this doesn't necessarily indicate vote transfers between blocs, as undecided voters might switch within their own political camp.
Among parties, voters for the Joint List showed the highest certainty (81%), followed by Likud (68%), Religious Zionism-Identity (62%), and Shas (56%). In contrast, voters for "Bechirot" (likely referring to a party led by Bennett, though not explicitly stated) showed the lowest certainty, with only 23% completely sure of their vote. Voters for the Handel-Zalicha party also exhibited significant uncertainty, with 13% potentially changing their minds.
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