US Faces Dilemma Over Arab Region Presence: Full Withdrawal or Strategy Rethink

Amidst an eight-month conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran, American policymakers and thinkers are reconsidering the U.S. military and geopolitical presence in the Arab region. Political analyst Michael Fox, writing in Foreign Affairs, advocated for a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces and bases, arguing it would allow the U.S. to focus on higher-priority objectives in Asia and Europe. This call for withdrawal resonates with many Americans disillusioned by trillions of dollars spent and thousands of lives lost in the region with little tangible return.

Foreign Jordan, a researcher at the Brookings Institution and former national security advisor to former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, agrees that the U.S. may have overcommitted to the Middle East. However, he argues that a complete abandonment of the region is not the solution. The ongoing conflict with Iran, he contends, proves the existence of U.S. interests, but the previous methods of protecting them are no longer sustainable. Jordan proposes a "smart engagement" approach, which involves defending a narrower set of core interests, reducing military presence, and increasing reliance on diplomacy and partnerships.

Jordan further notes that the U.S. military presence, once seen as a deterrent and energy flow guarantor, has become a liability. Large bases established after the 1991 Gulf War are now vulnerable to Iranian drone and missile attacks, providing Tehran with leverage. Moreover, forward-deployed troops can tempt U.S. leaders toward military solutions and embolden allies like Israel, potentially drawing the U.S. into unwanted conflicts. Public opinion in the U.S. is increasingly leaning towards restraint or withdrawal, with a majority believing the conflict with Iran is not worth the cost and questioning the value of security partnerships and "endless wars."

While some historical drivers for U.S. involvement, such as competition with the Soviet Union and heavy reliance on imported oil, have diminished, other interests remain. Disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, which produces a fifth of global supplies, still impact U.S. consumers and global economic growth. Non-proliferation is another enduring interest, though experts debate whether Iran would pursue nuclear weapons if U.S. military threats were reduced. The potential for a nuclear-armed Iran to trigger a regional arms race, with Saudi Arabia and Turkey indicating they would pursue nuclear capabilities, is a significant concern.

Beyond security concerns, the U.S. has positive economic interests, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereign wealth funds holding over $5 trillion, including $2 trillion in U.S. assets. GCC nations also invest billions in data centers with U.S. companies, strengthening technological ties. Historically, U.S. withdrawals have had unintended consequences, such as the rise of ISIS after the 2011 Iraq withdrawal, necessitating a later return. Jordan's "smart engagement" model suggests maintaining regional involvement and security commitments while ending unconditional support for Israel, advocating for adherence to U.S. laws regarding military aid and human rights. This approach aims to protect U.S. interests more realistically without the risks of full withdrawal or excessive entanglement.