Netanyahu Faces Political Headwinds Ahead of Elections, Analyst Says

Israeli news commentator Amit Segal analyzed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political standing ahead of upcoming elections, identifying the October 7th massacre and the alliance with Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties as significant burdens.

Segal suggested that Netanyahu's legal proceedings, previously a burden, have now shifted to benefit him. However, he stated that the responsibility for the October 7th events and the political partnership with Haredi parties are now weighing heavily on the Prime Minister. The issue of Haredi parties has become a central theme in the current election cycle, contrasting with previous elections focused on potential alliances with Arab parties. Segal noted that Netanyahu is at a disadvantage regarding this issue, as the question of supporting non-Zionist Haredi parties is a key election topic.

Regarding the October 7th massacre, Segal asserted that Netanyahu bears the primary responsibility, stating, "He is the chief responsible party." He contrasted Netanyahu's narrative, which suggests the disaster could have occurred under any prime minister but military successes were possible under his leadership, with his rivals' claims that the massacre was preventable with different leadership and that military successes are primarily the IDF's achievements. A recent poll indicated that most of the public believes the massacre could have happened under other leaders and that military successes could have occurred under a different government.

Segal also expressed skepticism about either the "change bloc" or Netanyahu's bloc securing a majority of 61 Knesset members, predicting a scenario where both fall short. He highlighted the potential impact of parties near the electoral threshold, such as those led by Ofer Winter, Yoaz Hendel, and Yaron Ze'likha. Segal also discussed the possibility of a government led by Gadi Eisenkot, but voiced doubts about its stability due to its composition and ideological gaps with potential Arab party support. He considered forming only a transitional government problematic, as it could grant significant advantages to potential partners in future elections.

Reflecting on Netanyahu's leadership, Segal questioned the notion that Israel's existence depends on a single individual, comparing Netanyahu to Menachem Begin and suggesting that Netanyahu currently unites two distinct right-wing factions: the traditional, diplomatic right and the populist, social media-driven right. He speculated that finding a successor within the Likud party capable of bridging these two segments would be challenging, raising questions about the party's future after Netanyahu's departure. Segal also commented on former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, believing he missed an opportunity to become a significant prime ministerial candidate due to his public conduct, despite possessing a rare combination of security experience and distance from direct responsibility for the October 7th failures.

Finally, Segal addressed the demand for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7th events. While acknowledging the necessity of an investigation, he expressed concern about the efficiency and speed of a state commission, citing the lengthy duration of past commissions like the Agranat Commission. He stated his trust in Justice Noam Sohlberg to head such a commission but not in President of the Supreme Court Yitzhak Amit, whom he accused of political conduct. Segal also dismissed the idea of a joint coalition-opposition national inquiry committee, deeming it a "ridiculous" forum likely to result in paralysis rather than factual clarification. He warned that without a genuine investigation into the failures, further disasters could occur.