Arab Israeli Community Shows Increased Election Interest Amid Existential Fears

A recent internal poll by the Joint List predicts a 61% voter turnout in the Arab community for the upcoming elections, a significant increase from the 53.2% in 2022. This surge in interest is attributed to a growing sense of existential threat and a strong desire for change, fueled by concerns over the current government's policies and the potential for a different political alternative. Field activists report a palpable shift in atmosphere, with increased engagement driven by fears for the future and the perceived dangers of the current government's continuation.

Key issues driving this sentiment include rising crime and violence, the ongoing war, perceived racism against Arab professionals, the occupation, and settler violence in the West Bank and Galilee. Activists emphasize that these issues directly impact the daily lives, security, and future of Arab citizens. The actions and rhetoric of figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, along with provocations by other right-wing politicians and plans for settlement expansion in the Galilee, have intensified these fears, making the prospect of a similar government formation a significant concern.

Despite the heightened interest, challenges remain in mobilizing all segments of the electorate. Some voters are preoccupied with daily economic struggles, while others abstain for principled reasons. The withdrawal of Balad party leader Sami Abu Shahadeh from the election race has also dampened enthusiasm among some of his party's activists, though his continued involvement in joint activities may mitigate disappointment.

In a significant political statement, Joint List Chairman Yousef Jabareen declared the list would provide a "safety net" for any government replacing the Netanyahu government, indicating a willingness to negotiate external support for an alternative coalition. This position, while not entirely new, offers a clearer framework for influencing government formation and policy, with Jabareen emphasizing that the list has demands and will not be a "blank check." This approach, akin to past external support for the Rabin government, aims to influence policy on issues like the peace process and discrimination against Arab citizens.

However, the Joint List's proposed external support model has drawn criticism from the Ra'am party, which advocates for joining a coalition. This disagreement highlights differing strategies for achieving influence and resources. The political calculus suggests that if opposition parties and Ra'am together fall short of a majority, external support from the Joint List might become crucial, raising questions about opposition parties' preferences for coalition partners versus external support. Jabareen has outlined conditions for support, including combating crime, addressing housing and planning issues, recognizing unrecognized villages, and advancing a political horizon for Palestinians, while refusing to support war budgets, settlements, or silence on Gaza and the West Bank.