Netanyahu's Likud Prepares Campaign Against Rising Far-Right Rival Ben-Gvir

With two weeks until Israel's parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is intensifying its campaign to win over right-wing voters, focusing on curbing the growing popularity of Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit party. According to internal Likud polls cited by Maariv political correspondent Anna Barsky, Ben-Gvir's party could potentially gain 12-15 Knesset seats. This surge worries Netanyahu's camp, as an empowered ally could shift the balance of power within the right-wing bloc and increase his leverage in coalition negotiations.

Likud aims to reclaim voters who have shifted to Otzma Yehudit, reducing Ben-Gvir's party to an estimated seven to eight seats. This is a strategic campaign goal, not a prediction based on published polls. Barsky notes that Netanyahu does not expect all of Ben-Gvir's lost votes to go directly to Likud, with some potentially supporting Shas or Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionists. Netanyahu's priority is strengthening his own party and maintaining the overall size of the right-wing bloc needed for coalition formation.

Likud plans to appeal to moderate right-wing and liberal voters without jeopardizing post-election cooperation with Otzma Yehudit. "Attacks on Ben-Gvir should be expected. He is expected to take some hits in the remaining days before the election," sources involved in the campaign strategy told Barsky.

Competition for votes is also escalating between Ben-Gvir and the Shas party, which is seeing some supporters, particularly youth and traditional voters, move to Otzma Yehudit. Shas plans to use political statements and the influence of rabbis to regain support. Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef recently criticized Ben-Gvir for visiting the Temple Mount against rabbinical rulings and for contradictory statements and actions, also blaming him for the arrest of yeshiva students, which he claims harms Shas's electoral standing.

Meanwhile, Ben-Gvir is attempting to attract Likud supporters by warning of a potential Netanyahu government including Gadi Eisenkot, which he suggests could alienate right-wing voters. Tensions also rose due to a surplus vote-sharing agreement between Likud and the Religious Zionists, made without Otzma Yehudit's involvement, which the latter viewed as an attempt to weaken Ben-Gvir. Likud, however, is interested in strengthening Smotrich's party, which is nearing the electoral threshold in some polls.

Paid social media campaigns against Winter have recently emerged. A Likud internal study by sociologist Momo Filber indicated that about three-quarters of young voters support Likud, Religious Zionists, and Otzma Yehudit, with a quarter leaning towards opposition parties. Filber's poll also projected Likud winning 31 seats.