Israeli Election Scenarios: Who Will Lead and What Surprises May Emerge

With two weeks until the election, Israeli political analysts are weighing potential outcomes, with Gadi Eisenkot emerging as a possible next Prime Minister according to most polls, though his path to premiership is complex. His success may hinge on the support or abstention of Arab parties, as the "change bloc" struggles to reach the 61-seat majority independently. If candidates Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha pass the electoral threshold, the change bloc could secure 56-58 seats, potentially enabling Eisenkot to form a minority government with the Knesset's confidence through Arab party abstentions. This would be a fragile government but would allow partners to uphold their campaign pledges. Should Hendel and Zelekha fall below the threshold, the bloc might be limited to 52-56 seats, forcing Eisenkot to rely on or include Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party, a move complicated by Avigdor Lieberman's explicit refusal to sit in the same government.

Benjamin Netanyahu also has a route to forming a government, contingent on several factors: Ofer Vinter passing the threshold, the right-wing bloc reaching approximately 56 seats, and both Hendel and Zelekha entering the Knesset. This scenario could lead to a narrow right-wing government, with the main challenge being the conscription law, particularly concerning Hendel's commitments to sit with the ultra-Orthodox despite other pledges, while Zelekha remains unconcerned. A compromise on the law might be found to enable government formation.

An unlikely alternative is a unity government between the change bloc and Likud, given Netanyahu's long-standing ties to the ultra-Orthodox parties. However, such a broad coalition, possibly with a rotation agreement, remains a theoretical possibility. If no leader can form a government, the change bloc might seek control of the Knesset and its committees, leaving Netanyahu as a transitional prime minister with limited authority, potentially leading to further elections.

This election's outcome is particularly difficult to predict due to the ongoing war and its impact on voting patterns, and the fact that Netanyahu is seeking re-election after a full right-wing government term, a situation he hasn't faced before. These factors may influence results in ways current polls struggle to capture.

Potential election surprises include Itamar Ben-Gvir's party, which could gain 9-10 seats, exceeding current poll predictions, especially among young and first-time voters. Naftali Bennett might also outperform expectations, securing two to three more seats than forecast due to an aggressive campaign and his past premiership. The Likud could also be a surprise if right-wing voters rally behind Netanyahu in the final days. The Arab sector is expected to see a strengthening of parties, potentially reaching 13-15 seats combined, significantly impacting government formation possibilities. The final seat distribution will be known on October 27th, but a clear victory for either bloc may remain elusive, possibly leading to more elections or an unstable government.

Economist Avner Stepak commented that the stock market euphoria, even if his preferred bloc wins, would likely last only two days, and that continued populist policies could cost Israelis up to $10,000 annually.