Smotrich's Threats to Egypt Jeopardize Israel's Leverage Over Hamas

Recent statements by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, suggesting Egypt would lose the Sinai Peninsula if it attacked Israel, are undermining a key Israeli asset: Egypt's influence over Hamas. These remarks, according to analyst Pinhas Anbari, also jeopardize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to form a coalition similar to the previous one. Anbari references David Cham's book, "Egypt First and Forever," which details Israel's internal understanding of its relationship with Egypt. The book highlights that the peace with Egypt is a cornerstone of Israel's national security, and Smotrich's comments are seen as a crude blow to this foundation.

Cham's work, based on firsthand accounts from within the defense establishment, reveals Egypt's historical strategy to transform Hamas into a purely political entity, detached from groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey, and Qatar. This leverage was primarily exercised through the Rafah crossing, Gaza's gateway to the Arab world. Anbari argues that Israel's policy of keeping Rafah largely closed since May 2024, only reopening it in a limited capacity in February 2026, has stripped Egypt of its influence over Hamas. This has inadvertently strengthened Qatar's hold on Gaza and allowed Turkey to gain a foothold, with both now involved in Gaza's peace council and administrative committee.

The article details historical interactions, such as the 2009 ceasefire negotiations after Operation Cast Lead, where Egypt mediated between Israel and Hamas. During these talks, Egyptian officials, including Intelligence Minister Omer Suleiman, emphasized closing Rafah as a pressure tactic against Hamas. Despite public condemnation of Israel, Egypt privately held Hamas responsible for escalations and tacitly supported IDF actions, viewing Hamas as a national security threat due to its ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. This strategic alignment aimed to restore Palestinian Authority rule in Gaza and diminish Hamas's political power.

Anbari posits that Smotrich's inflammatory remarks could also have significant implications for Israeli domestic politics, potentially hindering Netanyahu's chances of forming a government with the outgoing coalition's configuration. He notes President Isaac Herzog's recent call for stable post-war arrangements, suggesting that Egypt will be central to future developments in Gaza. Smotrich, given his statements, may not be a viable member of such a future government, especially if it involves engaging with Egypt on Gaza's future, a scenario potentially influenced by upcoming US elections.