Analysis Questions Accuracy of Unsold Apartment Data in Israel
Translated & summarized from Ice by baba
An analysis by 'Bonnim Atid' suggests Israel's reported figures for unsold apartments are misleading. Researchers Idan Peleg and Roi Fishman argue the definition includes units still under construction or only permitted, inflating the total. Nehama Bogin, chairwoman of the Land Appraisers Association, called the high figure an "urban legend." The analysis proposes focusing on completed apartments and comparing construction completion rates with population growth for a clearer picture of the market.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- An analysis questions the accuracy of Israel's reported figures for unsold apartments.
- Researchers Idan Peleg and Roi Fishman argue the definition of 'unsold' inflates the number.
- Nehama Bogin, chairwoman of the Land Appraisers Association, called the high figure an "urban legend."
- Average construction time has increased, contributing to the inflated inventory.
- The analysis suggests comparing construction completion rates with population growth for true market insight.
A new analysis by the firm 'Bonnim Atid,' led by economist Idan Peleg and land appraiser Roi Fishman, challenges the widely reported figures on unsold apartments in Israel, suggesting they may be misleading. While official data indicated a slight decrease in unsold apartments by the end of July 2026 after a March peak of over 86,000, the researchers argue that the definition of an 'unsold apartment' inflates the actual number.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), an unsold apartment is a new unit with a building permit that has not yet been reported as sold. However, the analysis points out that this includes apartments still under construction or even before construction has begun, as well as those that have received a permit but are not expected to be completed for years. This definition, the researchers contend, inflates the total inventory.
Nehama Bogin, chairwoman of the Land Appraisers Association, called the figure of 85,000 unsold apartments an "urban legend," echoing the analysis's sentiment. She clarified that the relevant figure should be completed, ready-to-occupy apartments, not those merely permitted.
The study also highlights that the average construction duration has increased to 32.3 months, up from 27.6 months before the war. This extended construction period, combined with record-high construction starts, contributes to the growing number of apartments in the CBS's 'unsold' inventory, even though they are not yet ready for occupancy.
The analysis further reveals that as of April 2026, approximately 11.2% of apartments, or about 9,400 units, were completed but unsold. This compares to about 17% or 12,000 units in November 2024. The researchers emphasize focusing on the absolute number of apartments rather than percentages. They also note that the CBS has begun excluding apartments unsold for more than 15 months after receiving occupancy permits (Form 4), which has slightly reduced the reported inventory.
Peleg and Fishman conclude that a more accurate measure of supply versus demand involves comparing household growth data with construction completion data. They suggest that the current high number of 'unsold' apartments might be an "optical illusion," with the true test being the pace of construction completion against population growth.
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