Poll Shows Likud Gains, Coalition and Opposition Tied as Netanyahu Trails Eisenkot

A new poll conducted by Lazar Research for Maariv newspaper indicates a shift in the Israeli political landscape, with the Likud party gaining one seat to reach a tie with opposition parties. The coalition bloc now stands at 52 seats, matching the opposition bloc, which lost one seat due to a decline in the Democratic party's strength. Within the coalition, Otzma Yehudit lost a seat while the Religious Zionism party gained one. Arab parties collectively maintained their strength with 12 seats.

The poll, which surveyed 700 Israelis aged 18 and over on October 7-8, also revealed voter intentions. If elections were held today, Yesh Atid would receive 21 seats, followed by Likud with 20, and National Unity with 13. The Democratic party and Yisrael Beiteinu would each get 9 seats, Otzma Yehudit 8, and the Joint List 7. United Torah Judaism and Shas would each secure 7 seats, Religious Zionism 6, and the United Arab List 5. Amcha Israel, Reserve Soldiers, and the Economic Party would each receive 4 seats.

Regarding leadership, Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu by 46% to 40% in suitability for Prime Minister. Netanyahu trails Naftali Bennett by only two percentage points (44% to 42%) and leads Avigdor Lieberman by six points (44% to 38%). Overall, 38% of Israelis want Netanyahu to continue as Prime Minister, compared to 24% for Eisenkot and 14% for Bennett.

Furthermore, the survey found that 59% of Israelis oppose the inclusion of an Arab party in the government coalition, while 36% support it. In contrast, 53% favor the participation of a Haredi party in the coalition, with 41% opposing it.

Voter turnout confidence is high, with 78% certain they will vote, 18% believing they will, and 4% expressing varying degrees of doubt. Those intending to vote for opposition parties showed higher certainty (86%) compared to coalition supporters (81%).