Brazil Election May Bring New Powerful Ally for Israel

Brazil's upcoming presidential election runoff could lead to a significant shift in its foreign policy, potentially bringing a new, strong ally for Israel. Flavio Bolsonaro, a candidate who has openly expressed support for Israel, has widened his lead over the incumbent president ahead of the decisive vote.

Recent polls indicate that Bolsonaro is ahead of current President da Silva by more than five percentage points. The second round of presidential elections is scheduled for October 25.

When considering only valid votes, excluding undecided voters and those planning to spoil their ballots, Bolsonaro's advantage increases to 52.8% versus 47.2%. This poll, conducted between October 3 and 8 among 5,026 participants, confirms a trend observed after the first round, where Bolsonaro unexpectedly secured first place. The margin of error for this survey is one percentage point, with 3.2% of respondents remaining undecided or unwilling to cast a valid vote.

For Israel, Bolsonaro's potential victory is particularly significant. During his campaign, he pledged to reorient Brazil's international stance, promising that by 2027, Brazil would once again support Israel on the global stage. Specific commitments include reinstating Brazil's ambassador to Israel and relocating the country's embassy to Jerusalem. Such moves would represent a substantial policy reversal for Latin America's largest nation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously welcomed Bolsonaro's success in the first round of elections, expressing hope for the restoration of a "special friendship" between the two nations and wishing the candidate a decisive victory in the upcoming runoff.