Israel Has Two Years to Act on Palestinian Issue Before It's Too Late
Translated & summarized from Israel Hayom by baba
Israel has a two-year window until January 20, 2029, to address the Palestinian issue before potential US policy shifts under a new president. The article criticizes Israel's current approach and highlights the importance of Gaza's future, referencing Trump's "Deal of the Century" as a potential framework. Upcoming Israeli elections are deemed crucial for decision-making on Gaza, with significant uncertainty surrounding poll results. The piece also critiques the public discourse on hostages and the war's progress, suggesting a biased narrative is prevalent.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israel has a critical two-year window until January 20, 2029, to address the Palestinian issue before potential US policy changes.
- A Democratic US president might recognize a Palestinian state, ban settlement goods, and sanction Israeli politicians.
- The article criticizes Israel's current settlement expansion policy and advocates for taking initiative on the Palestinian issue.
- Gaza is identified as central to the future, with Trump's "Deal of the Century" proposed as a potential framework.
- Upcoming Israeli elections are crucial for deciding Gaza's future, with significant poll discrepancies.
- The public discourse surrounding the hostages and the war is criticized as superficial and biased.
With a new US president set to take office on January 20, 2029, Israel faces a critical two-year window to address the Palestinian issue before potential international pressure escalates. If a Democrat wins, the article suggests, the US might recognize a Palestinian state, ban settlement goods, and impose sanctions on Israeli politicians. This looming confrontation is seen as the "devilish legacy" of Yahya Sinwar, whose death has brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront when Israel's international support is waning.
While some, like Avigdor Lieberman, propose taking initiative, his plan for Jordanian forces in the West Bank is deemed a mistake. The current Israeli approach of expanding settlements, or "one more dunam and one more goat," is criticized as passively drifting towards an iceberg. A source familiar with Israel-US relations suggests that even a hostile Democratic administration would hesitate to act against Israel if it maintains a stable and positive trajectory, lamenting the missed opportunity of Trump's "Deal of the Century" which could have legitimized Israeli sovereignty.
The article argues that Gaza is central to the future, as "everything began there and everything will be decided there." Trump's plan, which ended the war, is praised for attempting to disconnect the region from the Oslo Accords framework, proposing a demilitarized, non-PA, non-Hamas Gaza as a model to prevent repeating past mistakes in the West Bank. The plan's emphasis on "de-radicalization" is seen as a crucial element Israel can leverage.
However, progress is stalled, with the US frustrated by Israel's actions in Gaza. The timing of the US plan's launch in October 2025, just before an election year, is considered poor. Israeli officials warned that launching the plan now would ensure its demise by the right-wing, leaving Netanyahu with no choice but to oppose it, a move the opposition would also support. The composition of the next Israeli government is therefore seen as crucial for making decisions regarding Gaza.
The article also delves into the upcoming Israeli elections, highlighting a significant gap between poll predictions for Netanyahu's bloc, ranging from 49 to 64 seats. It discusses the differing strategic assumptions within Netanyahu's and Gadi Eisenkot's camps regarding voter turnout and mandate shifts. The piece criticizes the public discourse surrounding the hostages, contrasting the views of former hostage Avinatan Or and Biden's advisor Bret McGurk with the prevailing narratives in Israel, which it deems superficial and biased. It concludes that while voters may hold Netanyahu accountable for the gap between his promises and the reality, they will ultimately reject a narrative of complete failure.