Lieberman Missed Chance to Lead Anti-Netanyahu Bloc

Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, has declared he will not sit with Prime Minister Netanyahu, the ultra-Orthodox parties, or Arab parties, effectively boycotting 60 Knesset members. He has also pledged not to allow the formation of a minority government. Despite these firm stances, Lieberman expresses confidence in his ability to form a government, a position that raises questions given his stated commitments. Some believe Lieberman is least concerned about further elections, allowing him to maintain his positions even if it prevents coalition formation.

Lieberman had a significant opportunity to emerge as the leading figure of the bloc opposing Netanyahu, particularly when his party polled in the double digits as Benny Gantz's support waned. At that time, Lieberman needed to unite the bloc and aim for over 20 seats. He engaged in negotiations with Gideon Sa'ar and Naftali Bennett, but these potential alliances failed to materialize. Another missed opportunity was to lead the opposition's efforts in the Knesset. Instead, Naftali Bennett captured the anti-Netanyahu mantle, later succeeded by Gadi Eisenkot.

Currently, Lieberman is focusing on consolidating his support among Russian-speaking voters and right-wing centrists who oppose Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties but are not left-wing. His campaign includes strong rhetoric against the ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties, even voting to disqualify Ra'am, despite Yisrael Beiteinu previously being in a coalition with them. The article questions how Lieberman, whose party polls at eight to nine seats, still positions himself as a candidate for prime minister.

Sources suggest Lieberman's ambition stems from a genuine desire to lead after years in politics, and he draws legitimacy from the precedent set by Bennett. However, unlike Bennett, who positioned himself as a centrist balancer, Lieberman is firmly in the anti-Netanyahu camp. His talk of premiership is seen as a strategy to retain voters and signal his independence in future coalition negotiations, rather than a philanthropic gesture.

Lieberman reportedly believes his bloc can achieve 61 seats with proper election day operations. He argues that uniting behind a single candidate would be detrimental, advocating instead for each party leader to pursue the premiership to maximize voter appeal. This strategy aims to keep voters within the bloc, as different segments may prefer different leaders. If no decisive outcome occurs, Lieberman's camp believes they can argue that other leaders like Eisenkot, Bennett, and Lapid have been tried and failed, making him the next logical choice.

An alternative scenario posits that if no government can be formed without Arab parties and further elections seem unlikely to change the landscape, Lieberman might reconsider his refusal to sit with Netanyahu, potentially accepting a rotation premiership. The article concludes by noting that in such an open election, creative solutions for the post-election period are necessary.