Hamas Views Survival as Victory, Prepares for New Round of Conflict

Hamas leadership perceives its continued resistance against the IDF as a form of "victory," despite the Israeli military controlling approximately 70% of the Gaza Strip, according to information presented to Israeli security officials, including the Prime Minister and Defense Minister. Hamas considers this control "temporary." A senior security official stated that Hamas believes U.S. President Donald Trump's "Deal of the Century" plan for Gaza, promoted by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and involving tens of billions of dollars in economic development, is a continuation of the vision set forth by Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 1999. They are convinced of this, even if it faces delays.

The official elaborated that Hamas members tell themselves they have not been defeated by an army widely considered the strongest in the Middle East, citing their resilience against the IDF over three years with basic equipment and their steadfastness. This resilience, they believe, is something no other Arab army in the region has achieved. Consequently, Hamas is preparing for a potential IDF ground maneuver toward Gaza City, despite reported tensions between local leadership and Khalil al-Hayya in Qatar. Hamas is reportedly working around the clock on recruitment, distributing weapons, digging defensive tunnels, manufacturing explosives, producing short-range rockets, and preparing for surprises.

In response, the IDF's Southern Command, Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN), Air Force, and Shin Bet have intensified targeted assassinations against individuals involved in the October 7th attacks and those organizing future attacks or terror infrastructure. These efforts aim to pressure Hamas and disrupt the rehabilitation of its military wing. The senior official added that because the Hamas leadership refuses to disarm and cede control to an alternative entity, the IDF is preparing for scenarios involving massive population displacement and a ground maneuver into the heart of Gaza City to dismantle terror infrastructure and destroy the highly capable military battalions.

The senior official estimated that a ground maneuver would be unavoidable, with security establishment assessments suggesting the issue will be decided after the upcoming Israeli elections. Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who was killed in 2004, defined Israel as a "temporary entity destined to disappear completely from the map and be replaced by an Islamic state on all the lands of the Land of Israel." In a 1999 interview with Al Jazeera, he predicted Israel's demise by 2027 or 2028, based on a 40-year theory divided into phases: the Nakba generation (1948-1980s), the resistance generation (armed struggle), and the generation that would bring Hamas's victory and Israel's collapse.