Likud Campaign Believes Right-Wing Bloc Closer to Victory, Segal Reports

The Likud campaign leadership convened to assess the political situation, concluding that the right-wing bloc is closer to victory than defeat, according to columnist Amit Segal. Segal noted that poll predictions are unusually volatile, with projections for Netanyahu's bloc ranging from 49 to 64 seats. He added that even within Gadi Eisenkot's camp, there's an assessment that their bloc is leading and could strengthen, particularly if candidates like Ofer Winter and Zelicha fall below the electoral threshold. The Likud believes their bloc will win, and also sees the weakening of Winter and Zelicha as a condition for success.

Two key questions are driving the uncertainty: whether Likud voters are apathetic and will vote in lower numbers, or enthusiastic and will turn out in force; and whether the shift of seats from the coalition to the opposition is significant, amounting to five or six seats, or just one or two.

Segal also analyzed Netanyahu's strategic approach, suggesting that a leader confident of victory might avoid confrontation with Eisenkot and work against Winter to facilitate government formation. Conversely, a leader fearing defeat might seek confrontations and maintain ties with Winter to form a blocking bloc. He recalled Netanyahu's display of confidence in the 1999 elections to prevent his camp from disintegrating, concluding that "one of them must make the mistake of their life."

Beyond domestic politics, Segal addressed the looming diplomatic challenges with the next US administration. He warned that a Democratic president could raise issues such as recognizing a Palestinian state, restricting settlement goods, and imposing sanctions on right-wing Israeli politicians. He criticized the Israeli election campaign for largely ignoring this challenge.

Segal presented the future of Gaza as a central diplomatic issue, advocating for adherence to the Trump plan for ending the war, which aims for reconstruction, demilitarization, non-Hamas/Palestinian Authority governance, and replacing UN involvement with a peace council. He highlighted the plan's de-radicalization component, absent in the Oslo Accords. The plan's implementation is stalled due to the US election year, hostage returns, the Iran operation, and the intensifying Israeli campaign. Segal suggested a unity government, free from political survival pressures, could make decisions on Gaza and urged Israel to leverage the remaining time in Trump's term for on-the-ground progress rather than focusing on repeated elections.

Finally, Segal discussed the public debate over the hostage deal, referencing comments by Avinatan Or and Brett McGurk. Or argued that disproportionate deals could lead to further abductions, while McGurk claimed such offers weren't on the table before military pressure on Hamas. Segal criticized how hostage families with similar views were previously portrayed, suggesting public discourse delegitimized certain opinions. He noted that the government approved presented hostage deals, and no proposal to return all hostages without a full withdrawal from Gaza was presented until October 2025. He concluded that the public will weigh the "absolute victory" promise against the reality on the ground, but in a choice between absolute victory and absolute failure, the public might not choose the latter.