Oman Seeks to Restore Regional Standing After Pilot Incident

Oman is facing a diplomatic crisis following an incident where a co-pilot of a Flydubai flight to Israel attempted to crash the plane. The co-pilot, who had reportedly undergone a rapid radicalization process, was grounded by Omani authorities, but this critical information was not shared. The Omani elite is reportedly embarrassed, and the kingdom's official silence stems from deep anxiety about its regional standing as a neutral mediator between Iran, Washington, and Beijing.

Some in Israel hope the crisis might help mend relations with Oman, potentially under U.S. pressure. However, the regional landscape has changed significantly since 2018, when the late Sultan Qaboos bin Said hosted then-Prime Minister Netanyahu in an unprecedented public visit. Under the current Sultan Haitham bin Tarik, Oman has adopted a more reserved stance, prioritizing "secret ties over normalization."

Oman's historical diplomatic approach, established by Sultan Qaboos, was based on maintaining connections with all regional actors, fostering deep personal relationships between Israeli security and intelligence figures and the Sultan's inner circle. These ties led to economic and technological partnerships, particularly in desert agriculture and water management, often conducted discreetly through shell companies. The 2018 visit by Netanyahu and the then-head of the Mossad symbolized this unique relationship, where a Gulf sultanate without formal ties to Israel hosted an Israeli leader, viewing dialogue as crucial for regional stability.

While overt political and civilian ties have diminished, with Omani airspace now closed to Israeli flights, Oman continues to serve as a communication channel with Iran and its proxies, hosting Houthi representatives and maintaining economic and political ties with Tehran. This infrastructure allows for the transmission of urgent messages to prevent miscalculations during regional escalations. Oman's primary goal is not warm peace with Israel but to act as a buffer against regional conflict.

Comparisons to Qatar are often made, noting both nations' independent foreign policies and their hosting of groups like Hamas (Qatar) and the Houthis (Oman), while relying on U.S. security umbrellas. However, Oman's Ibadi Islamic sect promotes moderation and tolerance, contrasting with Qatar's support for political Islam. Oman's diplomacy is quiet and discreet, unlike Qatar's media-driven influence. Economically, Oman is less wealthy than Qatar, making its neutrality a survival tool.

During the U.S.-Iran tensions, Oman found itself between a rock and a hard place, attempting to appease both Washington and Tehran. President Trump even threatened Oman for trying to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Iran. Oman's strategic asset is its long coastline outside the Strait of Hormuz, offering a vital alternative trade route. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project, potentially a key reason for the October 7th events, could leverage Omani ports, bypassing Hormuz and providing a secure supply chain. This development poses a geopolitical challenge to Iran and complicates China's investments in Oman's Duqm port, part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

Israel's challenge is to leverage the current situation, potentially through indirect, quiet diplomacy. Offering Oman a long-term economic and geostrategic outlook, including significant international investment in IMEC, could incentivize Muscat to prioritize economic interests over political fears. Israeli expertise in water management and desert agriculture, channeled through discreet ventures, could revive the "quiet partner" model. The MEDRC water center in Muscat also serves as a platform for discreet meetings. Furthermore, Israel could engage India, which has strong ties with both Oman and Israel, to create an Omani-Indian axis that could counterbalance other mediation efforts and position Oman as a crucial land bridge connecting the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean.