Israel's New Security Doctrine: Buffer Zones or Permanent Occupation?

Three years after the October 7th attacks, Israel has not achieved a comprehensive military victory, and its new security policy is being questioned. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has adopted a new offensive policy, establishing security buffer zones beyond its borders rather than solely within Israel, except for the borders with Jordan, Egypt, and the West Bank. This shift was prompted by the large number of infiltrators who crossed into southern Israel.

In Gaza, the IDF controls approximately 65% of the territory, with fortifications expanding daily. Palestinian populations have been concentrated in major cities and camps, and much of the formerly inhabited land east of the "green line" has been destroyed. Similarly, in Lebanon, Israel is operating along the Litani River as a de facto security zone, with border villages razed. In Syria, Israeli forces have advanced deep into the Golan Heights, operating within the Syrian civilian population, a situation that raises concerns about potential escalation and resistance, as noted by Dr. Carmit Valensi.

The long-term implications of these buffer zones remain unclear. Defense Minister Yisrael Katz suggested a "tens of years" presence in Lebanon, but the exact meaning is ambiguous. While these zones may deter raids, their prolonged existence poses challenges. In Syria, unrest is growing among the Sunni population, who previously relied on Israel for basic needs, leading to incidents where civilians were killed or injured near IDF forces. Elizabeth Tsurkov's reporting indicates rising anger that could evolve into national resistance and retaliatory actions.

Israel's presence in Syria is described as a "ticking time bomb," potentially creating new enemies. In Lebanon, while the government is a dialogue partner, it cannot officially endorse the displacement of its citizens, leading to internal friction and accusations of complicity with Israel. This complicates political negotiations and strengthens Hezbollah's position by maintaining the status quo.

In Gaza, Israel appears determined to maintain a wide buffer zone, supported by the US, with the condition that Hamas must be dismantled. However, this support has an expiration date, likely tied to the 2028 US presidential election. The article suggests Israel must prepare for eventual international pressure to withdraw by planning a new buffer zone that, while encroaching on Gaza's territory, would be less extensive than the current one. The author questions whether these buffer zones represent a strategic objective or merely tactical maneuvers, warning that the war might have become an end in itself, potentially causing Israel to miss crucial political opportunities after paying a heavy price.