Netanyahu's Election Gambit: 'Either the Right or Palestine'

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's election campaign has launched a new slogan, "Either the Right or Palestine," urging voters to support the "true right" represented by the Likud party. This slogan implicitly criticizes the new ideological right-wing party led by General Ofer Winter, suggesting it would align with Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu. Netanyahu's campaign also faces challenges from Itamar Ben-Gvir's campaign, which uses the slogan "If he were Defense Minister, October 7 would not have happened." Earlier, on October 6, Netanyahu stated he would not leave politics even if he failed to form the next government, vowing to return after subsequent elections.

The "Either the Right or Palestine" slogan aims to divide the Israeli public, leveraging the majority's opposition to a Palestinian state. It seeks to pit Netanyahu's coalition against all opponents, even those on the ideological right like Winter and Lieberman. The slogan also capitalizes on the prevailing sentiment since October 2023 that Israel faces an existential threat requiring border expansion, not contraction, and that a Palestinian state poses a danger to Israel's Jewish character. Furthermore, it aims to preempt any shift towards a political solution involving separation and opposition to annexation, which some, including figures like Gantz and Golan, view as an existential threat to Israel as a Jewish state.

Netanyahu is portrayed as a shrewd campaigner, recalling his 1996 victory over Shimon Peres, managed by Arthur Finkelstein with slogans like "Peres will divide Jerusalem" and "Bibi is better for Jews." While Netanyahu still employs potent campaign tactics, their effectiveness appears to be waning. His strategy now involves building a barrier against the opposition to remain in power, ideally within a national unity government that aligns with his stance against a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu also perceives a potential shift in US policy towards imposing a new regional political reality, despite Israel's military achievements. European policy, leaning towards sanctions and increasing international isolation, further complicates Israel's position, making a Palestinian state seem unavoidable. He recognizes the opposition's political fragility as an opportunity, especially before they might align with the US-backed plan to end the Gaza war, which includes opening a path to a Palestinian state. Opposition leaders, particularly Gantz, are reportedly hesitant to accept the idea of a Palestinian state, though they oppose annexation due to its perceived existential threat to Israel. Concerns about Israeli ethnic cleansing practices in the West Bank are shared by Lieberman and Golan, who fear an imposed international solution.

The absence of a unified opposition political project enhances Netanyahu's chances of forming a national unity government that excludes Arab parties. Tensions with Ben-Gvir suggest his potential exclusion from such a coalition, with Netanyahu's Likud accusing Ben-Gvir of dividing the far-right bloc. Ben-Gvir, sensing a decline in his popularity, is reportedly seeking votes from Likud and the Shas party. This internal conflict could benefit the religious Zionist movement allied with Netanyahu, though their inclusion in a "national unity government without Arabs or extremists" is also uncertain.

Netanyahu continues to rely on a rightward shift in Israeli society and his ability to unite right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties. He attributes the recent shift in polls from opposition dominance to a near-even split to his own efforts. His declaration about not leaving politics is aimed at solidifying his base and preventing internal Likud succession battles. The effectiveness of the "Either the Right or Palestine" slogan remains to be seen, but it signals Netanyahu's strategy for securing a unity government and further delegitimizing the idea of a Palestinian state.

Ultimately, the current coalition's survival seems unlikely, depending heavily on Arab voter turnout rather than the opposition's strength. Netanyahu's primary goal is to retain his premiership, possibly in rotation, within a national unity government. His campaign is attempting to distance itself from Ben-Gvir, exacerbating internal divisions within the far-right. The Palestinian issue has returned to the forefront of the election, driven by Netanyahu's desire to prevent a Palestinian state and by international pressure, including potential US-led actions to impose a political solution. The slogan, despite Netanyahu's intentions, highlights the Palestinian issue's prominence, even as he seeks to weaken the opposition and rally the right.