Hamas October 7 Attack Planned Years in Advance, Not Triggered by Judicial Overhaul
Translated & summarized from Zman Yisrael by baba
Hamas's devastating October 7 attack was planned years in advance, beginning in 2016, and was not triggered by Israel's internal judicial overhaul debate. A primary objective was to prevent normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The UAE President reportedly warned Prime Minister Netanyahu about a potential attack shortly before October 7, though Netanyahu's office initially denied this. The plan, codenamed "Jericho Wall," was finalized in 2021 and involved coordination with Iran and Hezbollah.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Hamas's October 7 attack plan was developed starting in 2016, predating Israel's judicial overhaul debate.
- A key objective of the Hamas attack was to prevent normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
- The UAE President reportedly warned Prime Minister Netanyahu about a major Hamas plan before October 7.
- Hamas's operational plan, "Jericho Wall," was finalized in 2021 and coordinated with Iran and Hezbollah.
- The internal Israeli conflict over judicial reform may have presented an opportune moment but was not the cause of the attack.
Contrary to a prevailing belief in Israel, Hamas's plan for the October 7, 2023, attack was conceived in 2016 and meticulously developed over years, predating the intense domestic debate surrounding Israel's judicial overhaul. One of the primary objectives of the Hamas assault, possibly the most crucial from their perspective, was to thwart the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
While the internal Israeli conflict over the judicial "reform" and the resulting societal divisions may have presented an opportune moment for the attack, they were not the root cause. Hamas's operational plan, codenamed "Jericho Wall," began construction in 2016, with a preliminary version reaching military intelligence (AMAN) in 2018, though it was initially deemed unrealistic. The plan was updated in 2019, and the "Jericho Wall" version was finalized in 2021. By 2022, the plan was in the hands of AMAN, and coordination with Iran and Hezbollah had also commenced years prior.
Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the massacre and then-Hamas leader in Gaza, detailed attack scenarios in a 2022 letter to Ismail Haniyeh, then head of Hamas's political bureau, who was based in Iran. These scenarios were also presented to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a long-standing goal of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since 2015, was viewed by Hamas as a strategic threat. The Abraham Accords had fueled optimism for this normalization, prompting Hamas to establish a dedicated office in 2022 to counter it, headed by Marwan Issa. Sinwar expressed concern that a Saudi deal would lead to further Arab states normalizing ties with Israel, marginalizing the Palestinian issue. He stated that an "unusual move" was necessary to halt this trend, and the attack was planned two years in advance to create a strategic shift.
Reports also suggest that the President of the UAE, Mohammed bin Zayed, warned Netanyahu about a week and a half before October 7 that Sinwar was planning a major move that could ignite the Middle East. Netanyahu reportedly downplayed the threat, believing it pertained to the West Bank and failing to update his security chiefs. While Netanyahu's office initially denied the conversation and warning, subsequent reports and a senior Middle Eastern intelligence source confirmed that the UAE had passed a credible warning to Israel. Bin Zayed reportedly refused Netanyahu's request to deny the report during a later visit to Abu Dhabi. The UAE's foreign ministry declined to comment on specific leader conversations.
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