Eritrean Troops Enter Ethiopia Amid Tigray Conflict, Affecting Regional Alliances

Eritrean forces have reportedly entered Ethiopia's Tigray region, with residents claiming to have seen soldiers near Adigrat and some moving south towards Mekelle, the regional capital. This deployment comes nearly two weeks after the escalation of conflict between Ethiopia's federal government and Tigrayan rebels, the "Tigray People's Liberation Front" (TPLF). The Eritrean incursion follows a recent severing of diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Initially, Eritrea denied involvement, but reports of its troops' presence have surfaced amid heightened tensions. The conflict in Ethiopia, which reignited on September 23, raises fears of a return to the devastating civil war from 2020-2022. Eritrean support for Tigrayan forces was previously suspected, potentially stemming from Ethiopia's desire for sea access, which Eritrea had denied.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his peace agreement with Eritrea, now faces a complex situation. The recent conflict in Tigray has also impacted a "triple alliance" formed between Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Israel, aimed at securing Ethiopian access to the sea. Ethiopia leased a coastal strip from Somaliland for 50 years and began developing a port and military base, a move that reportedly drew concern from Somalia, Sudan, and Egypt.

Arab media commentators suggest that Israel's involvement in Somaliland has influenced the decision-making of leaders in Egypt, Somalia, and Sudan. The current fighting in Tigray, involving the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, has led to civilian casualties and concerns about a wider regional war.