Gaza Rockets Silent for a Year, First Time Since 2000

For the first time since 2000, a full year has passed without any rockets fired from Gaza crossing into Israel. The last successful rocket launch from the Gaza Strip occurred on October 7, 2025, impacting the community of Nativ Ha'asara near the border. A subsequent launch on January 8, 2026, failed to reach Israeli territory. This marks a significant shift, as previous years, even those with reduced rocket fire like 2015 and 2017, still saw rockets cross the border at some point.

Despite the current lull, Hamas retains a substantial arsenal, estimated by the IDF to include tens to hundreds of rockets and mortar shells. The military continues to find evidence of Hamas's intact rocket infrastructure. In June, the Israeli Air Force destroyed four launch sites Hamas had prepared during a ceasefire, which were deemed an immediate threat. In December, IDF soldiers discovered launch sites with five barrels and ready-to-fire rockets, and in August, a tunnel containing dozens of rockets was found and destroyed.

The central question arising from this year of quiet is why Hamas is not utilizing its remaining rockets and infrastructure. IDF officials suggest Hamas itself may prefer to maintain the current calm. A large-scale rocket attack could provoke immediate Israeli retaliation, hinder Hamas's military recovery, and jeopardize its efforts to regain control of Gaza. The remaining rockets may be viewed by Hamas as a resource to be preserved rather than immediate munitions.

Israel continues its efforts to degrade Hamas's rocket capabilities, conducting strikes on weapons depots, launch sites, and underground infrastructure even amid the absence of rocket fire. In August alone, the IDF and Shin Bet targeted five weapons depots and one launch position. In September, the IDF reported eliminating a militant from Islamic Jihad's rocket unit who had previously participated in attacks against Israel.