Israeli Analysts Debate Missed Opportunities and Lessons Since October 7

Three years after the October 7th attacks, Israeli analysts from "HaYom" are reflecting on strategic decisions and potential missteps that could have altered the course of the ongoing war. One key point of discussion is a dramatic proposal presented to the war cabinet on October 11, 2023, to launch a preemptive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, leveraging peak international support. This plan, championed by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, was reportedly opposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who favored a sequential approach: Hamas first, then Hezbollah, and finally Iran. The opportunity to neutralize Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at that time was missed, a decision that analysts suggest reflects Netanyahu's long-standing strategy.

Analysts Yoav Limor, Itay Ilanai, and Lilach Shoval also explored other critical junctures. Limor argued for simultaneous global efforts on a "day after" plan for Gaza and a robust international public relations campaign. Shoval suggested that an immediate, full occupation of Gaza in the initial days might have shortened the war significantly. The analysts questioned whether Israel has truly moved beyond its pre-war strategic assumptions, with Ilanai quoting a senior officer who stated the IDF was structured to delay wars rather than win them, a mindset attributed to Netanyahu's "containment policy."

Despite a perceived shift towards a more assertive posture post-October 7, concerns remain about the lack of a state commission of inquiry and the continued marginalization of ministers from key decisions, as highlighted by Limor. Shoval pointed to Israel's dependence on the United States, suggesting decisions are made in Washington rather than Jerusalem, potentially jeopardizing Israeli security. She also noted that military actions, particularly in the north and Gaza, have been constrained by political considerations, possibly to avoid antagonizing the US.

Regarding the immediate aftermath of the October 7th attacks, analysts largely agree that no single military action could have prevented the initial Hamas assault due to the element of surprise and Hamas's tactical advantages. However, the effectiveness of local emergency response teams in mitigating damage within communities was noted, leading to their expansion and reinforcement. The delay in the IDF taking full command of the Gaza envelope after the initial collapse of the Gaza Division is seen as having prolonged the conflict and increased casualties. Some suggest that increased readiness, including air force alert status, could have reduced the overall damage.