Dollar Rises Against Shekel, Global Markets Await Fed Minutes
Translated & summarized from Calcalist by baba
The US dollar rose 0.3% to trade above 3.05 shekels, reflecting global market trends. Investors are awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes for insights into future interest rate policy. Market expectations for an immediate rate hike have decreased, though a December increase is still anticipated. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak today, with markets closely monitoring their statements.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- The US dollar increased by 0.3% to trade above 3.05 shekels.
- Global markets are awaiting the release of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes.
- Market expectations for an interest rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28th have decreased.
- There is an 84.5% probability of an interest rate hike at the Fed's December 9th meeting.
- Several senior Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.
- The euro remained stable around 3.43 shekels, while the pound and yen saw minor fluctuations against the dollar.
The US dollar saw a moderate increase, climbing 0.3% to trade above 3.05 shekels in the local market, mirroring a global trend. The euro remained largely unchanged, trading around 3.43 shekels. Globally, the dollar index rose 0.2% to 102.0 points, while the euro weakened 0.2% to trade above $1.12, and the British pound fell 0.2% to trade above $1.32. In Japan, the dollar gained 0.2% to trade at 158.4 yen.
Investors in the United States are anticipating the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September 16th meeting, where the interest rate was raised from 3.75% to 4%. The minutes are scheduled for publication at 9:00 PM.
Analysts from Deutsche Bank noted that economic forecasts and statements since September suggest broad support for further interest rate hikes, though there is less consensus on the pace and extent of these increases. They highlighted a division within the Fed's policy committee, with some members advocating for data-dependent pauses and others favoring a multi-stage approach to reach a sufficiently restrictive policy level.
Market expectations for an interest rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28th are diminishing, with the market assigning a 20.5% probability, down from 51% a week ago. However, there is an 84.5% probability priced in for a rate increase at the subsequent meeting on December 9th, the last of 2026.
Several senior Fed officials, including Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, and Alberto Musalem, are expected to deliver speeches later today. According to Samara Hammoud, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the markets are reacting sharply to US economic data and statements from Fed officials due to a lack of clear forward guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding future policy.
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