Ultra-Orthodox Parties Concerned Over Shifting Political Landscape
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Ultra-Orthodox political parties are worried about the rise of Yoaz Hendel's "The Reservists and the Economic Party" and the decline of Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" ahead of elections. Hendel's party insists on equal military service, potentially complicating coalition talks for ultra-Orthodox parties. Voter data shows Hendel's support is firm, while Winter's is wavering, raising fears Winter's party might not enter the Knesset. This shift could empower a party demanding strict conscription terms, reducing ultra-Orthodox parties' negotiating power.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Ultra-Orthodox parties fear Yoaz Hendel's party may enter Knesset, demanding strict conscription terms.
- Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" is weakening, with only 57% of voters expressing firm support.
- Yoaz Hendel's "The Reservists and the Economic Party" shows strong voter commitment at 95%.
- Hendel's party makes equality in military service a core campaign issue.
- A potential shift could reduce ultra-Orthodox parties' leverage in coalition negotiations.
Ultra-Orthodox political circles are expressing concern over a developing trend ahead of the upcoming elections, specifically the rise of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's "The Reservists and the Economic Party" and the concurrent decline of Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel." This electoral competition is seen as having significant implications for the composition of the next coalition and the ability to reach agreements on the sensitive issue of military conscription.
Winter's platform takes a strong stance on military service and is closely aligned with the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Sources within the ultra-Orthodox political system believe that if Winter joins a right-wing coalition, negotiations might be possible to achieve broader coalition agreements. In contrast, Hendel's party places equality in service at the core of its campaign, advocating for a rigid position against broad exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox community.
Ultra-Orthodox figures fear that Hendel's party entering the Knesset at Winter's expense could replace a potential negotiating partner with a party demanding much stricter terms for joining a government. This concern extends even to scenarios where Gadi Eisenkot might lead a post-election bloc, as Hendel's insistence on conscription could limit Eisenkot's maneuvering room and complicate compromises with ultra-Orthodox parties.
Further fueling these worries are recent Kantar data highlighting voter commitment. "The Reservists and the Economic Party" boasts 95% of its potential voters expressing strong certainty in their choice, while "Amcha Israel" shows a much more fragile support base, with only 57% of its voters feeling very confident. This disparity is particularly significant for parties near the electoral threshold, suggesting Winter's support may be more volatile in the remaining weeks before the election.
The primary concern for the ultra-Orthodox political establishment is the potential scenario where "Amcha Israel" fails to cross the electoral threshold, while Hendel and Zelekha solidify their position. This could lead to a party entering the Knesset that would make equal conscription a central condition in any coalition negotiation, thereby directly impacting the ultra-Orthodox parties' leverage after the elections.
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