Israeli Election Poll Shows Vinter's Party Falling Below Threshold

The Am Israel party, led by Ofer Vinter, has dropped to just 1.5% in a Channel 12 poll released Monday, three weeks before the 26th Knesset elections. This marks the second consecutive poll where the party has failed to pass the electoral threshold, after previously polling above it for several weeks. The results come shortly after a comprehensive review of the party's platform and Vinter's stated red lines was published.

The party, launched in August, had quickly established itself around the electoral threshold. However, it now faces a significantly different situation. According to the poll, Yesh Atid, led by Gadi Eisenkot, remains the largest party with 23 seats. The Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, gains strength with 21 seats. Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, receives 13 seats. The Democratic party, led by Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, each get 9 seats. The Joint List and United Torah Judaism receive 8 seats each. Shas and Otzma Yehudit get 7 seats each. Religious Zionism-Identity strengthens to 6 seats. Ra'am receives 5 seats. The Reservists and New Economy party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha, passes the threshold with 4 seats.

Vinter's decline is particularly notable compared to earlier election polls. In late August, a Channel 12 poll gave Am Israel 4 seats, and a subsequent Walla poll after the party lists closed also showed 4 seats and 3.5% of the vote. In mid-September, the party still held 4 seats. A "Israel Hayom" poll on September 17th gave them 4 seats, with the party described as moving away from the danger zone. However, the situation has changed in recent days. A Kan News poll on Sunday showed Am Israel falling below the threshold for the first time, and the Channel 12 poll on Monday shows a further drop to 1.5%.

Also polling below the threshold are the Haredi Public party, led by Moti Leitner, with 0.6%, and Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, with 0.5%. The poll's results alter the bloc map. Parties opposing Netanyahu collectively receive 67 seats: 54 from Zionist parties and 13 from Arab parties. Current coalition parties receive 49 seats. The Reservists and New Economy party is classified as part of a "third bloc" with 4 seats.

In a question about suitability for prime minister, Gadi Eisenkot received 41% compared to Netanyahu's 38%. Against Naftali Bennett, Netanyahu garnered 41% to Bennett's 37%. Against Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu received 43% versus 26% for Lieberman. The poll was conducted by Midgam Consulting and Research, headed by Mano Geva, on October 5th, with 501 respondents representing a sample of the Israeli population aged 18 and over. The maximum margin of error is 4.4%.