IDF Intelligence Chief: Most Hamas Infiltrators Eliminated, Group Plans New Attacks

The Head of Military Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder, revealed to the Ministerial Committee on National Security that the majority of Gazans who infiltrated Israel on October 7th have been eliminated. Out of approximately 6,000 who crossed the border, 4,000 were killed, with Binder vowing to reach the remaining 2,000. This information was provided in response to a question from Minister of Heritage Yitzhak Wasserlauf.

Intelligence officials are observing increased Hamas preparations for renewed fighting in Gaza. Shin Bet head David Zinni briefed ministers that Hamas is planning a new attack or a specific kidnapping incident, potentially around the upcoming Israeli or US elections. Hamas is believed to be exploiting this period to stockpile weapons and military equipment, moving assets into civilian areas, anticipating that Israel's hands are tied regarding large-scale operations before the elections.

Despite significant losses, Israeli officials estimate Hamas still has tens of thousands of militants in its military wing, a number not substantially different from before October 7th. However, these forces are described as less skilled and trained, with diminished combat capabilities. This is attributed to ongoing Israeli strikes, the danger of practical training exercises, and severe damage to Hamas's command and control structure, leading to rapid turnover of commanders with less experience.

Senior Israeli officials analyzed Hamas's current strategic position, noting its physical isolation from Egypt, a reduction in smuggling capabilities, and the loss of over 60% of Gaza's territory to Israeli control. This has limited Hamas's ability to rearm and provide for the population, though its rocket capability, while diminished, is being preserved. Hamas is reportedly seeking to adopt a model similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon, transferring formal civilian administration to a national committee while retaining influence through its operatives within the government structure, thereby freeing up resources for military rebuilding.

Furthermore, Hamas is reportedly attempting to form a political front against Palestinian Authority Chairman Abu Mazen, in conjunction with other factions and Mohammed Dahlan's camp. Dahlan is seen as having identified an opportunity to re-enter the Palestinian political arena post-October 7th, with assessments suggesting he has opted to cooperate with Hamas, believing it will remain a significant force. The future implementation of plans for Gaza, including the disarmament of Hamas, is expected to be heavily influenced by the outcome of the upcoming Israeli elections.

Regarding Hezbollah, officials estimate its current strength is significantly reduced compared to before October 7th. The organization is said to have lost about 80% of its rocket potential and suffered severe blows to its command structure, with most of its senior leadership eliminated. Elite forces like the Radwan unit have also been heavily impacted. Hezbollah's political standing within Lebanon has also shifted, with the Lebanese government taking steps to outlaw its military activities, indicating a weakening of the organization. Additionally, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has disrupted Hezbollah's strategic rear and its supply routes from Iran.

Ministers also discussed a video allegedly showing soldiers from Unit 8200 claiming involvement in war crimes and describing collateral damage policies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed the need for an investigation, even if the individuals involved are not yet identified, while Justice Minister Yariv Levin and Minister Miri Regev emphasized the urgency and necessity of examining the claims.