Lebanon Fears Escalation Amidst Post-Hezbollah Power Struggle

Lebanese officials and security sources are expressing concerns about a potential escalation with Israel, particularly regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah and the future security arrangements in southern Lebanon. Reports indicate that Beirut fears Israel may increase military pressure in the period leading up to Israeli elections. Lebanon is reportedly working to solidify its "red lines" with Israel ahead of upcoming military talks in Tampe.

According to Lebanese media, Israel continues to conduct operations on the ground while simultaneously pursuing negotiations, aiming to pressure the Lebanese government into taking action against Hezbollah's infrastructure. One analysis suggests Israel is considering establishing a new security reality in southern Lebanon, potentially resembling security mechanisms in the Golan Heights or Sinai. This could involve creating zones with varying degrees of control and security restrictions, including a "grey line" several kilometers from the Blue Line, and deeper areas with special security arrangements.

Israel reportedly desires a direct coordination mechanism with the Lebanese army, under American auspices, without significant reliance on international forces. Lebanon, however, rejects this and is pushing for a new international mechanism to replace UNIFIL after its mandate expires. Beirut plans to present a detailed proposal for a future international force and a mechanism to ensure both Hezbollah's disarmament and an Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas, seeking U.S. support and a UN Security Council resolution.

Washington may also employ the threat of sanctions against Lebanese political figures, officials, and even security officers if progress on disarmament is deemed insufficient. The Lebanese army, meanwhile, emphasizes its goal of expanding state control without engaging in internal conflict with Hezbollah.