Netanyahu Faces Ouster Without 61 Knesset Seats, Analyst Warns

Political commentator Mati Tuchfeld has presented a stark analysis suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have no viable path to remain in office if the right-wing bloc fails to secure a majority of 61 Knesset members in the upcoming elections. Tuchfeld argues that such an outcome would leave Netanyahu vulnerable to political ouster.

According to Tuchfeld's assessment, published on the "Maariv" website, the opposition would immediately move to seize control of the Knesset by replacing the current Speaker, Amir Ohana, with their own candidate. This move, he explains, would strip the outgoing coalition of its ability to influence the legislative agenda, including votes, laws, and committee appointments.

The next step, as outlined by Tuchfeld, would involve securing the support of Arab parties, such as Ra'am and the Joint List, through legislative measures and budget transfers. This would enable the opposition to form a government, even without a formal coalition agreement at that stage.

Tuchfeld further predicts that the opposition would leverage this parliamentary majority to pass significant legislation before a new government is even sworn in. This could include establishing a state commission of inquiry and enacting laws designed to permanently remove Netanyahu from politics, such as a bill barring a prime minister under indictment from serving. He notes that a similar bill was previously blocked by figures within the coalition, but anticipates no such obstruction this time.

Following these parliamentary maneuvers, coalition negotiations would commence. Tuchfeld describes two potential scenarios: an optimistic one leading to a stable government, contingent on resolving the prime minister position among themselves and potentially seeing the Likud party fragment or Netanyahu step down if disqualification laws are passed and upheld by the High Court of Justice. A more pessimistic scenario involves an inability to form a stable government, leading to an agreement for new elections and the swearing-in of a transitional government solely focused on removing Netanyahu.