US Withdrawal From Iraq Creates New Security Challenges for Israel

The United States has completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, concluding Operation Inherent Resolve after more than two decades of presence. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) finalized the evacuation of forces and equipment from the Erbil air base on September 30, marking the end of American military involvement in the country. This move is part of a planned transition to bilateral defense relations between the U.S. and Iraq. CENTCOM's joint task force remains operational, now headquartered in Jordan, while U.S. forces continue their mission against ISIS in Syria. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, praised the efforts of American military and civilian personnel who served in Iraq.

Following the U.S. departure, Iranian-backed Shiite militias, including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Al-Nujaba, have refused to disarm. The Iraqi government has postponed the official militia dissolution deadline to June 2027, while the umbrella organization Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi continues to operate as an extension of Iran's Quds Force. This development facilitates the completion of the "Shiite Crescent," a territorial corridor enabling the transfer of weapons, military technology, and fighters from Iran through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. These militias are now directing their resources towards direct threats against Israel, having previously launched hundreds of drones and cruise missiles toward the country.

Israel's security establishment is undergoing a significant conceptual shift in response to this new operational landscape. The previous presence of U.S. troops in Iraq had imposed a degree of restraint on potential Israeli strikes, out of concern for harming foreign forces. This limitation has now been entirely removed. The vastness of Iraq necessitates a dramatic expansion of Israel's technological intelligence gathering to locate militia strongholds. As part of its ongoing "war between wars" campaign, Israel is focusing on striking Iraqi military convoys and equipment as they cross into Syria.

In addition to continued intelligence cooperation with the U.S. and pursuing sanctions against terror commanders, Israel is working to build a joint air defense system with moderate regional states to intercept threats originating from Iraq before they reach Israeli airspace. The U.S. has recently deployed two additional Patriot air defense batteries to the Persian Gulf, one to Saudi Arabia and another to Qatar, to protect key energy infrastructure. This U.S. deployment aims to reassure Gulf allies of American commitment to defending their energy facilities, particularly amid concerns about potential Iranian retaliation if conflict with Iran escalates.

Jordan has found itself at the center of unprecedented regional tension. In August, Jordan issued a stark warning to Iraq, stating that any attack originating from Iraqi territory would be met with immediate and decisive force. This warning came in response to concrete threats from pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, who have identified Jordan as a primary target for reprisal due to its cooperation with the United States. Tensions escalated following a series of dramatic events beginning in late July, when pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq launched drone and ballistic missile attacks against energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and U.S. bases in Jordan. On July 29, U.S. CENTCOM forces, alongside the Saudi Air Force, conducted extensive airstrikes in Iraq against Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi command centers, weapons depots, and logistics sites.

The U.S. withdrawal did not create the threat but rather removed the final restraint. With the militias enjoying unprecedented political and military freedom in Baghdad, Israel has made it clear that the rules of engagement have fundamentally changed.