Turkey Eyes Iraq Amid US Withdrawal, Potentially Shrinking Israel's Regional Space

The potential withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq could significantly alter the regional balance of power, creating new opportunities for Turkey and Iran to expand their influence, which may impact Israel's position. While much attention focuses on Iran's potential gains, Turkey is also poised to increase its sway in Iraq, leveraging existing economic and political ties. Baghdad views the end of the U.S. military presence as a restoration of sovereignty, but the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan perceives it differently.

Masrour Barzani, Prime Minister of Iraqi Kurdistan, has warned that the U.S. departure leaves the region without its previous defense framework, particularly against threats from Iran. Tehran has conducted over a thousand missile and drone strikes against Kurdish opposition groups and sites linked to the U.S. presence in the region since February. Iran's actions aim to prevent Iraqi territory from being used by Kurdish organizations against Iran.

Adding to regional tensions are the long-standing political and economic ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Israel. Both Iran and Turkey are concerned about any strengthening of Israeli positions in the region. While Ankara and Tehran often disagree on regional matters, they share common ground in opposing Kurdish nationalism and the presence of armed Kurdish organizations near their borders.

For Israel, this evolving dynamic could mean a reduced space for cooperation with Iraqi Kurdistan. If Erbil is compelled to rely more on Turkey for protection against Iranian pressure, Ankara could gain leverage over the autonomous region's foreign relations. Turkey already has a substantial economic foothold in Iraqi Kurdistan, which is a major market for Turkish exports and a key source of oil, with energy pipelines like Kirkuk-Ceyhan facilitating oil flow to Turkey.

Ankara is also pressing Erbil to counter the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). This convergence of interests offers practical benefits: Erbil gains a stronger ally post-U.S. withdrawal, and Turkey expands its economic and political influence in northern Iraq. This scenario might even be acceptable to Iran, as Turkish presence is seen as less problematic than a stronger Israeli influence near its borders.