Israeli Official: Iran Weighing Responses to US Pressure Amid Nuclear Talks Stalemate

An Israeli senior security official stated on Friday that Iran is considering its responses to increasing American pressure, particularly as nuclear negotiations with Washington remain stalled. This situation, he explained, is leading to a more complex regional dynamic. The official noted that Iran is seeking ways to manage this situation and is contemplating influencing upcoming elections to gauge the other side's stance. He also pointed to recent incidents, some of which could escalate into attacks targeting Israel's home front from multiple directions, not necessarily directly from Iran. The Israeli security apparatus has been on high alert due to numerous warnings, with Hezbollah being a factor in Iran's calculations should a confrontation with Israel occur. The official highlighted that Iran is continuously assessing the U.S. stance and its readiness for a confrontation, which influences Tehran's own strategic evaluations. He emphasized that U.S. sanctions are visibly impacting Iran's deteriorating internal conditions, citing a significant increase in oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, now at pre-war levels, indicating a decline in Iranian influence there. The Iranian rial has hit a record low, with one U.S. dollar now equivalent to approximately 2.5 million rials, though the country has not yet reached hyperinflation. The official referenced a critical article in a pro-regime Iranian newspaper that compared the cost of eggs to average salaries, suggesting the cost of living has become unbearable. Adding to the economic strain, he described a U.S. naval blockade of Iran that began this week, which he characterized as humiliating and restrictive, even preventing family visits to neighboring countries. Consequently, Iran has urged its neighbors to resume civilian flights, with Iraq being the only country to agree so far, while flights to Azerbaijan remain suspended. Israeli defense circles estimate that Tehran is exploring its options and available tools for retaliation, pointing to failed Iranian attempts to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The defense establishment believes Iran's options have been significantly reduced by the naval blockade and its unsuccessful attempts at external attacks. They assess that unless Iran attempts to break the blockade militarily or reaches an understanding with the U.S., it will face worsening domestic problems stemming from sanctions. The Israeli military is preparing for scenarios where an Iranian initiative could spiral out of control, such as a missile strike on a U.S. vessel causing casualties, leading to an uncertain U.S. response. Israeli defense officials also believe that if Iran perceives an imminent attack or a loss of ground in its confrontation with the U.S., it might resort to attacks against American targets in Jordan or Israel. However, a senior official acknowledged that Iran is fully aware of the potential consequences of such actions, which is why it has not attacked Israel.