Senior Israeli Security Official Warns of Uncontrolled Escalation with Iran

A senior Israeli security official has expressed concerns about the escalating situation with Iran, stating that the lack of progress in nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States is creating a highly complex regional reality. The official noted that Iran is seeking ways to navigate this situation, potentially by influencing elections to understand the Israeli perspective. Recent weeks have seen numerous open-ended incidents that could lead to attacks on Israel's home front, requiring constant vigilance and assessment by the security establishment. Hezbollah is also considered a factor in Iran's calculations should a conflict with Israel arise.

The official highlighted that Iran is continuously assessing the United States' readiness for conflict, which influences their own strategic evaluations. The situation within Iran is described as negative, with American sanctions clearly impacting the country. Data from the IDF indicates an increase in oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, averaging 30-40 per day, a figure comparable to pre-war levels, suggesting a decrease in Iranian influence in the strait.

Furthermore, the Iranian Rial has reached a new low, with nearly 2.5 million Rials equivalent to one US dollar, though not yet considered hyperinflation. The official cited a critical report in an Iranian state-aligned newspaper about the unaffordable cost of living, particularly the price of eggs relative to average salaries. The recent US air embargo, which restricts even family visits to neighboring countries, adds a humiliating dimension to the sanctions, prompting Iran to seek the resumption of civilian flights, with only Iraq agreeing so far.

Israeli security assessments suggest Iran is deliberating its response, exploring its available tools and potential reactions. Attempts to damage vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have been unsuccessful. The security establishment believes Iran's options are narrowing due to the air embargo and its failed attempts at overseas attacks. They anticipate that if Iran does not attempt a military breakout or reach an understanding with the US, it will face mounting internal problems due to sanctions.

Consequently, the IDF is preparing for the possibility of an "uncontrolled initiative" by Iran, such as a cruise missile strike on a US ship resulting in casualties, the repercussions of which are uncertain. There is also an assessment that if Iran perceives an imminent attack or a significant loss of standing against the US, it might launch missiles towards American assets in Jordan or Israel. However, the official stated that Iran understands the severe consequences and therefore has not attacked Israel.