Netanyahu Faces Political Nightmare Scenario Without 61-Seat Majority

A recent incident involving a Flydubai flight disappearing from radar over Saudi Arabia, initially feared to be a hijacking and potential 9/11-style attack on Israel, has highlighted the precarious political situation for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Journalist Mati Tuchfeld, writing for Maariv, analyzes how this security scare, and the opposition's reaction to it, underscores the potential for a change in government if Netanyahu's coalition fails to secure a 61-seat majority in the upcoming elections.

During the Flydubai incident, Israeli security forces considered the extreme scenario of a hijacked plane with around 170 passengers, many of them Israelis, being deliberately flown into a crowded building in Tel Aviv. The ultimate decision on whether to intercept and shoot down the plane, potentially killing its occupants to prevent a larger catastrophe, would have fallen to the Prime Minister.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized the government, stating that the security briefing he received did not mention any incident similar to the Flydubai scare, accusing the government of "cheap politics" at the expense of national security. Avigdor Lieberman also weighed in, criticizing the government's stance on draft dodgers and soldiers, and linking it to the coalition's reliance on parties led by Goldknopf and Deri.

Tuchfeld argues that the opposition, despite having members with security backgrounds, has actively tried to shift the focus away from security issues, which would benefit Netanyahu. He notes that Lapid and Naftali Bennett reacted sharply when Netanyahu alluded to potential security escalations before the elections, attempting to redirect the conversation to the contentious issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription.

The article suggests that the opposition's campaign against Netanyahu, particularly regarding his alleged foreknowledge of the October 7th attack, has been ineffective. While those already opposed to Netanyahu may have accepted these claims, Tuchfeld believes that for undecided voters, the weak evidence presented might have backfired, potentially pushing them closer to Netanyahu or right-wing parties. The author posits that the opposition's strategy has devolved into a series of quickly forgotten, questionable revelations.

Looking ahead, Tuchfeld predicts the pre-election campaign will intensify after the holidays. He notes that the opposition bloc appears more prepared, with all its parties expected to pass the electoral threshold. A significant factor could be the approximately 12 mandates from Arab parties, with figures like Ahmad Tibi and Mansour Abbas indicating potential shifts in their traditional roles. The article outlines a scenario where, without a 61-seat majority, the opposition could attempt to seize control of the Knesset, change its speaker, and then work to pass legislation aimed at disqualifying Netanyahu from holding office, especially a law preventing a prime minister with an indictment from serving. This could lead to coalition negotiations, potentially with significant reliance on Arab parties, and ultimately to the formation of a new government, possibly a transitional one, designed to remove Netanyahu from power.