Poll Shows Narrowing Gap Between Israeli Coalition and Opposition, High Security Concerns

A new poll conducted by the Maariv newspaper indicates a shrinking political divide between Israel's governing coalition and the opposition, with the coalition gaining two seats to reach 51 and the opposition losing two seats to fall to 53. Within the coalition, the Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and Yahadut HaTorah each gained one seat. In the opposition bloc, the National Unity party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, continued its decline, losing another seat to reach 21, a drop of four seats in the past month. The Democratic party also lost a seat, falling to 10, and the Religious Zionism-Identity party dropped to 5 seats. Two parties, Ventir and the "Reservists and Economists" list, are polling at 4 seats each and are currently above the electoral threshold but not yet in a secure position. Parties failing to reach the threshold are losing support, with none polling above 1% of respondents. The percentage of undecided voters has also decreased to 6.4%.

In terms of individual party standings, the poll shows "Yisrael" (likely referring to National Unity) at 21 seats, Likud at 19, and United Torah Judaism and Shas at 7 seats each. The Arab Joint List remains at 7 seats, while Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit are both at 9 seats. The Religious Zionism-Identity party is at 5 seats, and the United Arab List is also at 5 seats. Ventir and the "Reservists and Economists" list are at 4 seats each. Parties like Blue and White, the Haredi public, Noam, and Tzomet Israel are not expected to pass the electoral threshold.

Regarding leadership suitability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has narrowed the gap with Gadi Eisenkot to 6 percentage points, with Netanyahu at 47% and Eisenkot at 41%. Netanyahu also maintains a lead over former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett (45% to 41%) and Avigdor Lieberman (44% to 39%).

Significantly, the poll reveals widespread public anxiety about national security, with 67% of Israelis fearing a security event on the scale of the October 7th attacks. Of these, 43% expressed some level of concern, and 24% expressed severe concern. Conversely, 26% stated they do not fear such an event, and 7% were unsure. The analysis shows this concern is prevalent across both coalition (65%) and opposition (77%) supporters, though the intensity of worry differs between the two groups.