Netanyahu Faces Political Dead End Amidst Campaign Disruptions

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent unannounced trip to the UAE has become a focal point, with speculation that it could be a turning point in the upcoming October 27th elections. If the opposition wins, it may not be due to their own successes, but rather because revelations about warnings Netanyahu received before the Hamas attack have derailed his carefully planned campaign, leaving him in a difficult position. Sources indicate that during his meeting, Netanyahu requested the UAE president deny reports, a denial that Abu Dhabi did not issue. Upon his return, Netanyahu filed sweeping defamation lawsuits against leading newspapers and journalists, raising questions about whether the UAE denial was sought specifically for these legal actions.

Netanyahu's office attempted to portray his trip as a regional discussion involving representatives from Saudi Arabia, Libya, Egypt, and Jordan. However, the article suggests such a discussion should have occurred much earlier, but Netanyahu's coalition with far-right figures prevented it. The piece notes a new alignment in the Arab world, including a Saudi-Emirati reconciliation, with Libya's army chief visiting the UAE concurrently with Netanyahu. Yet, a routine meeting for a different Israeli government could not take place under the current circumstances.

Netanyahu reportedly recognized that his governing coalition, comprising the Likud party absorbed by "violent Kahanism" and ultra-Orthodox parties unwilling to integrate into the state, had reached its end. This understanding is cited as the reason behind attempts to remove Kahanist Knesset members from the Likud list and replace them with more moderate figures. The article points to the rejection of invitations by potential candidates and the selection of less suitable individuals, such as a bereaved father who made controversial remarks about a hostage survivor, as evidence of this struggle.

An additional effort by Netanyahu was to bring Gadi Eisenkot into his government to form a new ruling bloc, replacing the current Likud-ultra-Orthodox-Kahanist coalition. Billboard advertisements featuring Netanyahu and Eisenkot together, under the slogan "Not a coalition. Not an opposition. The only news channel in Israel," are interpreted as a potential indicator of this new strategy, contrasting with the perceived role of Channel 14 in supporting the old coalition.

The article argues that the major disruption to Netanyahu's campaign stemmed from the revelations about the warnings he received and his failure to secure a denial from the UAE president. This led him to confront former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, which in turn closed the door to a potential coalition with Eisenkot. While Eisenkot had previously criticized Netanyahu, he remained ambiguous about serving with him until the confrontation with Bar. Following this, Eisenkot issued a statement calling Netanyahu's continued tenure "dangerous." The piece also touches upon security arrangements for Eisenkot, suggesting potential internal Shin Bet shifts related to this situation.

Finally, the article posits that Netanyahu's historical bloc is disintegrating, leaving him in a stalemate. This situation might lead him to create a scenario of canceling the elections, possibly linked to his warning that "our enemies will try to attack us" before the elections. The author questions the logic of this warning, suggesting that if enemies want a Hamas-aligned government in Israel, they would not seek to disrupt elections that could keep Netanyahu in power. The piece concludes by suggesting that if Eisenkot cannot serve with Netanyahu, the "change bloc" must alter its approach towards Arab parties, advocating for increased Arab voter turnout to counter Netanyahu's strategy.