Hamas Retains Significant Military Strength Nearly Three Years After October 7

Nearly three years after the October 7th attacks, Hamas, despite suffering heavy losses during the ongoing war, continues to maintain its infrastructure and personnel. The organization's military wing is estimated to still comprise between 25,000 and 30,000 militants, including new recruits.

Hamas is actively preserving and reinforcing its tunnel network, particularly in areas beyond the Gaza border, and operates facilities for rocket production in areas not yet subjected to Israeli ground operations or within populated civilian centers. While rockets are not currently being launched due to fear of Israeli retaliation, the production capability remains intact.

The group is also working to preserve its weapons stockpiles, recently distributing arms to residents identified as supporters, even if not official members. This is seen as an effort to ensure weapons remain available to its sympathizers for potential future scenarios. Additionally, Hamas continues to smuggle weapons from Egypt via drones, indicating ongoing efforts to rebuild its capabilities.

The overall picture is of an organization severely damaged but still possessing tens of thousands of fighters, underground infrastructure, local production capacity, and avenues for rearmament. Alongside ongoing military and intelligence operations by the IDF and Shin Bet, a political initiative is deemed necessary to complement military pressure and shape the future reality in Gaza.

The "October Council" criticized the continued rearmament of Hamas, stating, "Three years in which they promised us Hamas would be dismantled, that the threat would be removed, and that what was, would be no more." The council called for the disclosure of protocols, decisions, and warnings related to the war and efforts to prevent Hamas's rebuilding.