New Poll Shows Ultra-Orthodox Parties Weakening, Coalition Shrinks

A new poll conducted by Lazar Research, in collaboration with Panel4ALL, indicates a shift in the Israeli political landscape, with ultra-Orthodox parties experiencing a decline in support. This decrease has shrunk the governing coalition's bloc to 49 Knesset seats, a new low according to the survey published Friday by Maariv newspaper. Conversely, opposition parties have seen a slight strengthening, collectively gaining 55 seats.

The poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party continuing to lose ground, dropping another seat but remaining the largest party with 22 mandates. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "Likud" party holds steady in second place with 18 seats. Naftali Bennett's "Behad" party maintains its position with 13 seats, while Yair Golan's "Democrats" party gains strength, securing 11 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" retains 9 seats, the same number as Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit," which added one seat.

In the Arab sector, the "United Arab List" led by Ayman Odeh and Ahmad Tibi is projected to win 7 seats. The ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas led by Aryeh Deri and "Yahadut HaTorah" led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, each lose one seat, falling to 6 mandates apiece.

Other parties include "Religious Zionism - Zehut" led by Bezalel Smotrich with 6 seats, and Ra'am led by Mansour Abbas with 5 seats. Ofer Vinter's "Amcha Yisrael" and Jonathan Steinberg and Zeliha's "Reservists and Economic Party" each secure 4 seats, barely crossing the electoral threshold.

Notably, Benny Gantz's "Blue and White" party fails to enter the Knesset with only 1.3% of the vote, along with "Hatzibur Ha'Haredi" (0.9%) and "Noam Le'Yisrael" (0.7%).

The poll also surveyed preferred prime ministerial candidates. Gadi Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by 8 percentage points (47% to 39%), and Naftali Bennett also garners more support (46% to 42%). Netanyahu edges out Avigdor Lieberman 43% to 40%. The poll reflects the political situation at the time of its execution and is not a final election result.