Poll Predicts Knesset Stalemate, Opposition Bloc Edges Ahead

A new poll released Friday suggests that upcoming Israeli elections will not yield a clear majority for either the governing coalition or the opposition, with neither bloc expected to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government. The survey, conducted by Maariv newspaper, forecasts that opposition parties will collectively win 55 seats, while coalition parties and the "Amcha Israel" party will secure 49 seats. Arab parties are projected to gain 12 seats, and a list described as "Reserve and Economic Elements" is expected to win 4 seats.

Individual party projections include Benny Gantz's "Yishai" party with 22 seats, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 18, and Naftali Bennett's "B'Yachad" list with 13. Other projected seat counts are: "The Democrats" (11), Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" (9), "Otzma Yehudit" (9), the Joint List (7), "United Torah Judaism" (6), Shas (6), Religious Zionism and Feiglin (6), the United Arab List (5), "Amcha Israel" (4), and "Reserve and Economic Elements" (4).

The poll also explored leadership preferences. Gantz was favored by 47% of respondents as the most suitable candidate for prime minister, compared to 39% for Netanyahu. Bennett was preferred by 46% over Netanyahu's 42%. Lieberman received 43% support for the premiership, versus Netanyahu's 40%.

Among opposition voters, 48% prefer that opposition parties declare their leading candidate as the prime ministerial nominee now, while 18% prefer to wait until after the election. Overall, 34% of respondents support Netanyahu becoming prime minister after the election, with 82% of coalition party voters backing him. Among opposition voters, 50% support Gantz for prime minister, 25% support Bennett, 11% support Yair Lapid, 5% support Netanyahu, and 3% support Lieberman.

Furthermore, 62% of those polled expressed concern over Israel's international standing, including 88% of opposition voters. Conversely, 31% of respondents, including 59% of coalition voters, stated they were not worried.