Pollster Explains Right-Wing Shifts: Smotrich Overtakes Ben-Gvir, Lieberman Weakens

A recent poll analyzed by Shlomo Filber, a pollster for Channel 14 News, reveals significant shifts within Israel's right-wing political bloc. While the bloc maintains a stable 63 seats, internal dynamics show a weakening of Avigdor Lieberman and Itamar Ben-Gvir, with Bezalel Smotrich gaining ground.

Filber explained in an interview that voters are penalizing politicians perceived as acting unilaterally at the expense of bloc solidarity. This trend is currently impacting both Lieberman and Ben-Gvir. Lieberman is identified as the "weakest link" in the "change bloc," with a notable decline in support, partly attributed to his recent controversial remarks suggesting the involvement of Jordanian forces in Judea and Samaria. Filber characterized these comments as a significant strategic error that has likely closed off potential support from the right.

Within the right-wing bloc itself, Filber observed a similar phenomenon affecting Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party. For the first time since the split between the parties, Smotrich's Religious Zionism party, running with the 'Identity' faction, has surpassed Ben-Gvir in projected mandates. Filber stated that the public disapproves of Ben-Gvir's independent campaign against Likud and Netanyahu, his refusal to unite with Religious Zionism, and his alleged unilateral distribution of future ministerial portfolios.

Filber's analysis suggests voters prioritize bloc unity over individual party gains, punishing those who do not exhibit "team play." The poll results, as presented by Channel 14, show Likud leading with 32 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's 'Yashar' with 22, and Shas with 11. Other parties like United Torah Judaism, Israel Beiteinu, and Religious Zionism-Identity each received 7 seats, while Otzma Yehudit garnered 6 and Ra'am 5. The right-wing bloc collectively holds 63 seats, the left bloc 45, and Arab parties 12.