According to Direct Polls chief executive Tzuriel Sharon, the numbers mark an unusual shift after a long period of relative stability in the national camp. He said the poll is not a minor fluctuation, but a “recalculation” for the right, adding that Likud has fallen below 30 seats and that the bloc’s 58-seat total is the weakest seen in recent years.
Sharon tied the change to disappointment among right-wing voters after the US-Iran agreement and the results of Operation “Roar of the Lion.” He said, “The larger the expectations, the greater the disappointment: the expectations trap of ‘Roar of the Lion’ is costing Netanyahu dearly.” In his view, the gap between the government’s promise and the outcome has damaged its support, especially after what he described as a surprise deal brokered by President Trump with Iran.
He said only 10% of coalition voters view the situation as a victory. Two-thirds of right-wing voters see it as a partial achievement, while a quarter call it a complete failure. Sharon argued that many lost Likud votes are not moving to the opposition, but are instead staying home, describing this as a “passive revolt” by classic right-wing voters who are not switching sides, but may not vote at all.
Sharon identified three main trends in the poll. First, undecided and likely nonvoting right-wing voters are at a peak, making motivation a bigger problem than persuasion. Second, there is visible erosion in the ultra-Orthodox camp, which he linked to anger over conscription policy and arrests of yeshiva students. Third, several small right-wing parties remain below the threshold, collectively costing the bloc several valuable seats. He concluded that Netanyahu and Likud must quickly redefine what counts as “victory” if the right wants to get back above 61 seats.
