Extreme Heat Wave Could Cause Over 450,000 Deaths Globally

Extreme global heat waves, exacerbated by a potential "super El Niño" event, could lead to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths in the coming months. A report from the University of Chicago's Climate Impacts Laboratory estimates up to 451,000 excess deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with exceptionally hot days projected to increase by 44% compared to normal years. The impact will not be evenly distributed, with Nigeria facing the highest projected toll of around 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with approximately 19,300 and Sudan with about 17,600. In the Sahel region, encompassing countries like Niger, Chad, Nigeria, and Sudan, researchers estimate an additional 66,800 deaths.

The researchers describe the "super El Niño" event as a "postcard from the future," illustrating potentially more common heat conditions in the coming decades. They urge policymakers to prepare regions with high heat-related mortality risks. The forecast could worsen if El Niño persists into 2027.

Israel is also monitoring these developments. Meteorological Service reports from July indicated a strong El Niño event might develop in the fall of 2026, potentially ranking among the most powerful in recent decades. Scenarios being examined include short, intense rain events, concentrated within about four hours, potentially bringing up to 300 mm of rain to limited areas. These events could cause life-threatening floods, along with heavy hail, strong winds, and infrastructure damage. Sensitive areas identified include the Gush Dan region, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Rishon LeZion, Netanya, Haifa, and Nahariya.