WMO Warns El Niño Strengthening, Raising Global Extreme Weather Risks in 2026
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning that the El Niño climate phenomenon is intensifying and expected to become strong between August and October 2026. This development, combined with ongoing global climate change, is projected to significantly raise global temperatures and increase the likelihood of extreme heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and floods in various regions, including Israel.
The WMO report highlights that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, characterized by warmer western Indian Ocean waters and cooler eastern parts, will likely amplify regional climate impacts such as droughts and floods around the Indian Ocean basin. Additionally, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average, further influencing weather patterns.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the urgency of addressing fossil fuel emissions, stating that continued reliance on coal, oil, and gas will worsen the climate crisis and lead to more deadly consequences. WMO Secretary-General Andrea S. Saulo underscored the human role in mitigating El Niño’s effects and stressed the importance of reliable climate information to help governments and communities prepare for upcoming risks.
El Niño, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, involves warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean waters and typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting nine to twelve months. Its impacts vary by strength, duration, timing, and interaction with other climate patterns like the Indian Ocean Dipole. The current forecast indicates above-average temperatures across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, South Asia, East Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern South America, and New Zealand.
Rainfall patterns for August to October 2026 suggest wetter-than-normal conditions in the Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45 degrees north, and southeastern South America. Conversely, drier conditions are expected in South Asia, southern and eastern Australia, central South America, parts of the Caribbean, northwest South America, and northern Europe. The WMO cautions that even during neutral ENSO phases, extreme weather can still occur, but the strengthening El Niño will likely exacerbate these risks globally.
