Israel Prepares for Extreme Winter Weather Amid Incoming Super El Niño Event
As summer arrives in Israel with temperatures slightly below average, the Israeli Meteorological Service warns of a significant climate shift expected in late 2026 and early 2027 due to a developing extreme El Niño event. This phenomenon is predicted to bring warmer conditions globally, which could intensify rainfall and increase the likelihood of severe storm clouds.
Israel, warming at nearly twice the global average rate due to climate change, has seen a decline in average precipitation but an increase in intense, localized rain events causing floods, infrastructure damage, and risks to life and property. The upcoming El Niño is expected to exacerbate these trends, with forecasts indicating above-average rainfall and potentially extreme rain intensities across the country, particularly in early 2026/27.
Meteorological models suggest that short rain events lasting up to four hours could produce up to 300 mm of rain, winds reaching 150 km/h, large hail, and thousands of lightning strikes, leading to life-threatening floods and urban water accumulation. Longer storms lasting 24 to 48 hours could cause severe urban flooding, flash floods in riverbeds, infrastructure damage including to military airports, road closures, and agricultural losses.
Experts emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive preparedness, including urban planning that incorporates natural water absorption solutions like green spaces and permeable surfaces, alongside traditional infrastructure such as flood barriers and pumping stations. Real-time monitoring, public communication, emergency evacuation plans, and proactive maintenance like clearing drainage systems and trimming hazardous trees are critical. Special attention must be given to vulnerable populations and readiness for extended power outages.
Prof. Adi Wolfson, head of the Green Engineering master's program at Sami Shamoon College of Engineering, highlights that the anticipated "super El Niño" could also trigger Mediterranean cyclones and snowstorms, making early and thorough preparation essential to mitigate damage and protect lives during the upcoming winter season.
