Super El Niño Forecasted to Bring Severe Flooding and Snowstorms to Israel This Winter

Israel's Meteorological Service warns that the ongoing Super El Niño phenomenon will likely cause an exceptionally rainy winter, with serious flood risks along the coast and lowlands during autumn and early winter. Authorities are urged to prepare now for potential severe flooding and snowstorms. Despite Europe experiencing an unprecedented heatwave, Israel is expected to have a summer with average temperatures due to maritime air influence, according to Dr. Amir Gevati, head of the Meteorological Service.

Super El Niño is a natural climate event marked by unusually warm equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, disrupting global wind and rainfall patterns. This can lead to droughts, heatwaves, or floods in different regions and leaves long-lasting impacts on Earth's climate systems. Currently, the world is under the influence of a strong Super El Niño, with forecasts predicting extreme heat in summer, abnormal rainfall, and climate extremes that may raise food prices. Global warming intensifies these effects, making this combination particularly concerning.

The Israeli Meteorological Service has published a study linking past El Niño events to rainfall amounts and extreme weather in Israel. They predict a particularly strong El Niño developing in autumn 2026, which will amplify extreme weather during Israel's rainy season. From September to January, coastal areas could face wind gusts up to 150 km/h, hailstones 5-7 cm in diameter, and tens of thousands of lightning strikes in single events. Flooding could cause water accumulation up to meters high in urban areas, damaging infrastructure, agriculture, and energy systems.

High-risk flood zones include Ashkelon neighborhoods, northern and central Ashdod, Yavne, eastern parts of Rishon LeZion, low-lying areas in Nes Tziona, all cities in the Gush Dan region including Bikat Ono, Tel Aviv, Sharon region cities like Herzliya and Netanya, and parts of Haifa, the Krayot, and Nahariya. Some areas may experience once-in-a-century rain events. The Meteorological Service can provide early warnings 3-5 days ahead with increasing precision closer to the event.

From November to January, heavy rains and floods are also expected in the lowlands and central and northern mountain ridges, potentially causing road closures and access restrictions near military airfields. Vulnerable locations include the western Negev near Gaza, Lachish River basin including Kiryat Gat, Gan Yavne, Ashdod, and the Shorak River basin. The Ayalon River railway line may also face unusual flooding.

Early winter may bring a deep Mediterranean low-pressure system called "Medicane," resembling a hurricane with strong winds, heavy rain (hundreds of millimeters in a short time), high seas, and floods lasting 24-28 hours. Central and southern coastal plains, the lowlands, and northwest Negev could experience 80-120 km/h winds, heavy hail, and life-threatening floods with infrastructure damage.