Scientists Warn of a Potential Super El Niño That Could Disrupt Weather Worldwide

A climate event now developing in the Pacific could become one of the strongest El Niño episodes ever recorded, with effects across nearly every continent. The article, published June 16, 2026, says the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has formally declared the phenomenon underway, and some climate models already classify it as a possible “super El Niño,” potentially even stronger than the 1997 to 1998 or 2015 to 2016 events.

El Niño is a natural cycle in which weakened trade winds allow unusually warm water to build up in the eastern tropical Pacific near Peru and Ecuador, disrupting atmospheric circulation worldwide. Prof. Yoav Yair of Reichman University said fishermen in Peru noticed the warming centuries ago near Christmas, which led to the name “El Niño,” meaning “the child,” referring to Jesus. He said the difference between a normal event and a super El Niño is the amount of energy entering the system, with temperature anomalies of 3 or 4 degrees above average driving more floods, droughts, and storms.

The current event may last 8 to 12 months or longer, strengthen over the coming months, peak around the end of 2026, and continue into 2027. South America could face extreme rain and flooding, while Australia and Southeast Asia may see prolonged drought, weaker monsoon seasons, and a higher risk of major fires. The result could be crop damage, supply-chain disruptions, and higher food prices. Scientists have also used labels such as “Godzilla El Niño” and “Monster El Niño” to describe the scale of concern.

The danger is amplified because the planet is already warmer and the oceans are hotter than they were decades ago. Yair said a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, increasing the potential for intense storms and extreme rainfall. Some estimates suggest 2027 could become the hottest year ever measured, and 2026 may also approach recent records.

In Israel, the effects are expected to arrive later, through atmospheric waves from the Pacific, mainly from October to November and during the winter. The Israel Meteorological Service said in a May 19 report that a super El Niño could bring above-average temperatures and heat waves in the near term, then a wetter autumn and winter, especially in central Israel, the Judean Hills, and the Shfela. A new study by Dr. Noam Halphon found a significant link between strong El Niño events and heavier rainfall in Jerusalem, the Judean Hills, the Shfela, and as far as Kiryat Gat. Yair said the biggest concern for Israel is not just total rainfall but short bursts of very heavy rain that could cause severe flooding, especially in central Israel and southern streambeds.