Scientists Warn of a Potentially Historic Super El Niño and Its Global Fallout

A major climate event is already developing in the Pacific and could become one of the strongest ever recorded. The article says the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, has officially declared El Niño’s development, while some climate models believe it may grow into a “super El Niño,” possibly even more extreme than the 1997 to 1998 or 2015 to 2016 events.

El Niño is a natural cycle in which weakened trade winds allow unusual warming in the eastern tropical Pacific, near Peru and Ecuador. Prof. Yoav Yair of Reichman University explained that the phenomenon was named by Peruvian fishermen who noticed warmer water around Christmas and heavy fish die-offs. He said the difference between a normal El Niño and a super El Niño is the amount of energy added to the system, which can translate into more floods, droughts and storms when temperatures rise three or four degrees above average.

The current event could last 8 to 12 months or longer, intensify over the coming months, peak around the end of 2026 and remain influential into 2027. Expected impacts include flooding in South America, drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, weaker monsoons, a greater wildfire risk, crop damage, supply chain disruptions and higher food prices. The article notes the event is being described in international media with labels such as “Godzilla El Niño” and “monster El Niño.”

Scientists are especially worried because the event is unfolding in a much warmer world, with hotter oceans and an atmosphere holding more moisture. Yair said that in such conditions, “when you add a super El Niño, you get a combination that may further intensify extreme events.” Some estimates say 2027 could become the hottest year ever measured, and 2026 may also approach recent records.

Israel is expected to feel the effects later, mainly from October or November onward, through the transition seasons and winter. A Meteorological Service report from May 19 said Israel could see above-average temperatures and heat waves in the near term, followed by a wetter-than-average year, especially in central Israel, the Judean Hills and the Shephelah, with flooding and significant damage possible. A study by Dr. Noam Halfon found a clear link between strong El Niño years and heavier rainfall in the Jerusalem area, the Judean Hills, the Shephelah and as far as Kiryat Gat. Yair warned that the main risk for Israel is not just total rainfall, but short, intense downpours that can produce severe flooding, especially in central Israel and southern streams.