Israel Faces Unusual Winter Forecast with Heavy Rain, Floods, and Possible Snow

The Israeli Meteorological Service has issued new reports warning of an increased likelihood of extreme weather events during the upcoming 2026/27 winter season, linked to a strong El Niño phenomenon expected to develop this fall. This El Niño is anticipated to be one of the most intense in recent decades, potentially causing above-average rainfall, severe storms, and even significant snowfall in northern and central mountainous regions after several years without notable snow.

According to the reports, the warming of the Pacific Ocean associated with El Niño affects jet stream patterns and intensifies weather systems over the Eastern Mediterranean. This can lead to increased precipitation, with some areas such as the Judean Mountains and northern Negev possibly receiving up to 145% of their average rainfall. The Golan Heights and eastern Galilee are also expected to experience higher-than-average rainfall.

Extreme scenarios outlined include localized downpours of up to 300 millimeters within four hours, raising the risk of life-threatening floods, especially in vulnerable urban areas like Gush Dan, the Shfela region, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Rishon LeZion, Netanya, Haifa, and Nahariya. Additional hazards include heavy hail, strong winds, and infrastructure damage. The reports also highlight the potential for "Medicane" events, Mediterranean cyclones with hurricane-like characteristics, that could bring winds up to 120 km/h, thunderstorms, and hail.

The Meteorological Service emphasized that while these projections are based on climate models and indicate a trend toward wetter winters during El Niño years, other climatic factors could influence the season's development. They also noted that Medicane events can be forecasted three to five days in advance, allowing emergency services to prepare accordingly. However, the forecasts do not guarantee that all extreme scenarios will occur.

This forecast marks a significant alert for Israel, which has not seen such a strong El Niño impact in decades, signaling a need for heightened readiness for severe weather and its consequences in the coming winter.