Intelligence Officials: Sinwar's Pre-Oct. 7 Message Aimed to Lull Israel

Senior Israeli intelligence officials have revealed that a message conveyed by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in September 2023, through intermediaries linked to Mohammed Dahlan, was not considered high-quality operational intelligence. Instead, these officials believe the message was intended as a "smokescreen" to deceive Israel while Hamas finalized plans for the October 7th attack.

The intelligence, reportedly passed from Sinwar to Fatah official Soufian Abu Zaida, who has ties to Dahlan and subsequently to Israel's Shin Bet security agency, was confirmed as having been transmitted. However, a senior Israeli intelligence source stated that the information was "not warning intelligence, not quality, and not operational," and significantly inferior to intelligence Israel typically gathered. This lack of quality, the source explained, prevented the intelligence community from taking significant action, drawing a parallel to the "Golden Alert" before the Yom Kippur War, suggesting it was not as critical as Ashraf Marwan's intelligence.

Officials suggest Sinwar's strategy involved projecting an image of willingness for de-escalation and negotiation. This was allegedly coordinated with his deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, who reportedly met with Iranian officials to finalize the date for the October 7th massacre. This deception was part of a broader, systematic effort by Hamas over two years prior to the war, which included engaging journalists and former officials to promote the idea of Sinwar's focus on a "civilian salvation front" for Gaza's reconstruction and encouraging mediation channels for hostages.

The overarching goal of these actions, according to Israeli sources, was to create a dense smokescreen, allowing Hamas to complete its preparations for the attack undetected. The intelligence channel involved in this communication, reportedly established under Prime Minister Netanyahu's directive after the 2014 Gaza War, involved Hamas official Ghazi Hamad and Abu Zaida, who maintained contact with a senior Shin Bet official.