Syrian President Assad Amassing Military Power for Regional War

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is reportedly diverting the majority of the country's resources, including tax revenue and international aid, towards building a large regular army and acquiring advanced weaponry. Instead of investing in infrastructure, national reconstruction, or the welfare of citizens who have endured 15 years of conflict, the regime is prioritizing an arms race and concealing its military buildup.

This strategy has raised significant concerns within intelligence communities. Israeli military assessments suggest Assad's operational plans are aimed at a future moment when he can strike Hezbollah in Lebanon and pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq. He is believed to be waiting for an opportune time, combining advanced stages of military development with a reduced U.S. military presence in the region, particularly Iraq, to facilitate such actions.

Concurrently, European nations, led by Germany, are providing aid and support to Syria with the goal of stemming the refugee flow and preparing for their return. Security officials indicate that once Syria is stabilized and no longer considered a conflict zone, Europeans will find it easier to justify repatriating refugees.

Meanwhile, moderate Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively engaging with Assad, investing in his regime and showing him respect. Their aim is to moderate his agenda, distance him from extremist elements, and temper his policies, despite his past as a jihadist.

Relations between Turkey and Syria are described as complex. Security sources noted that Assad is unlikely to quickly cede territory to Turkey or allow it to control military bases within Syria. They also suggested that recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria may have inadvertently aided Assad by complicating Turkish ambitions. "Bashar al-Assad wants to build Syria under him as a regional power that looks in all directions. When he decides, he will also direct military force against Israel," one security official stated.

Israeli defense sources believe Israel missed a historical opportunity to reach an agreement with Assad when he was weak and newly in power, potentially solidifying border areas and the status of the Golan Heights. However, Israeli hesitation and focus on other fronts prevented progress. Consequently, the Israel Defense Forces are increasing intelligence gathering on the Syrian military and its capabilities, preparing operational plans to counter hostile intentions or buildups that threaten Israeli freedom of operation or superiority. A future confrontation is considered a matter of time.